Let me explain the information environment in China during times of crises using the Princess Bride. In this classic scene the hero challenges one of the kidnappers to a battle of the wits to the death and puts poison in a glass of wine telling the 1/n
the kidnapper to choose one of the glasses. The kidnapper uses logic to try and figure out which glass the poison is in but ends up trapped on logical circles. The same problem applies in China. Despite the idea that everything Chinese state media is a lie, they clearly 2/n
sprinkle in a healthy dose or at least just enough truth so that people struggle to tell what the truth is. Chinese know that the government lies about an enormous amount but not everything. Why? Because if the government lied about everything just do the opposite. 3/n
However, people generally treat the government as more of a continual liar rather than a random 50/50 chance game. Chinese friend told me a story, cannot perfectly vouch for accuracy but just the legend even if not true is revealing. After the Fukushima nuclear accident 4/n
a rumor started floating around China that iodized salt would protect people from radiation fall out. The government, accurately, issued a statement that iodized salt would not protect people from radiation fall out. This precipitated rush on iodized salt in China. This drive 5/n
another less understood problem. Because no one trusts the government or state media, everyone has much higher probability to believe friend, the internet, rumors. The rumor mill in China and the prevalence of conspiracy theories is truly like nothing I could compare it to. 6/n
This happens because people are much more likely to believe a) anything from unofficial sources b) from a trusted friend or family member even if it is absolutely crazy. Finally, add in this issue of impacting health. If there is one thing the Chinese public knows it is that 7/n
the Chinese government is the biggest liar ever on anything health and public safety related. Why do you think stores around the world have signs limiting milk powder purchases for Chinese tourists more than a decade later? There is zero revealed trust in government. 8/n
The Chinese public is like the Princess Bride kidnapper. Clearly I cannot chose the glass in front of me but then you know that I would know that so clearly I cannot choose the glass in front of you. They also know the game, having played before, that the government has put 9/n
poison in both glasses, so they put on masks, stay in doors, and simply refuse to drink from the poisoned glass of the CCP. There are many more layers to the information than simply saying state media lies and people do/don't believe what they are told. Done.
