1 / A few days ago, the WSJ published an article about Amazon Prime Video content. However, it was a chart showing Apple TV+ having 33.6 million subscribers in the U.S. that caught people's attention. wsj.com/articles/amazo… 
2 / We now have articles like the following (screenshot attached). This is how false narratives and misinformation spread. Notice how this 34 million subscriber number has seemingly taken on a life of its own. A closer look is needed to see what is actually going on here.
3 / The 33.6M Apple TV+ sub figure is from Ampere Analysis (a research firm). Firms are allowed to publish estimates. However, one's reputation when it comes to accurate financial modeling needs to be taken into account. There is reason to be skeptical of the 33.6M number.
4 / Apple hasn't provided any disclosure regarding the number of paying Apple TV+ subs. Instead, Apple merely said "millions of users" are on the platform. As discussed in the daily update from Nov 14th, there are caveats found with such a statement. aboveavalon.com/dailypremiumup… ($)
5 / My suspicion is that Ampere Analysis estimated the number of people in the U.S. that qualified for the free year of Apple TV+ promotion and just assumed that is the number of Apple TV+ subscribers. Such a methodology is problematic.
6 / You are not automatically signed up as an Apple TV+ subscriber by simply buying a qualifying Apple device. Instead, you need to claim (sign up for) the free year offer with $4.99 monthly charges beginning in 12 months.
7 / What does this mean?
A fraction of people who qualify for the Apple TV+ promotion will actually take Apple up on the offer. One has to also consider things like one promo per family.
The # of Apple TV+ paying subs is likely a fraction of the 33.6M estimate from Ampere.
A fraction of people who qualify for the Apple TV+ promotion will actually take Apple up on the offer. One has to also consider things like one promo per family.
The # of Apple TV+ paying subs is likely a fraction of the 33.6M estimate from Ampere.
8 / We may get clues regarding the number of Apple TV+ subscribers when Apple reports earnings on Tuesday. The company has to defer revenue based on attach rates for the Apple TV+ promotion. I discussed this topic in greater detail here: aboveavalon.com/dailypremiumup… ($)
