Thread by @JayIronHook

1/ Ignored calls & texts...just to study games on my NHL app. 🧐

Good news...this GAME TAPE thread will reveal the secrets of *HOCKEY LINE CHEMISTRY* 😇

Bad news...girl I liked - likes me less now. 😪

Sorry babe...trip to the Stanley Cup > trip to the Hakka restaurant 😈

2/ Some current context...

After two initial victories, Coach Hynes was concerned by anemic scoring & began mixing up offensive lines.

Thereby producing 2 *needless* losses. Since 2018, "anemic scoring" is just the nature of the #Preds beast...

https://twitter.com/JayIronHook/status/996513673865715712

3/ The #Preds are chasing a playoff spot. All that takes is wins. Low scoring wins count too!

Prioritize defense. And let's compose offensive lines based on demonstrated chemistry...rather than obligation to a contract or "the analytics community".

The answer is within...

4/ From this point on, we'll evaluate four #Preds lines.

Three of which demonstrate offensive chemistry - and actually share compositional similarities. And then we'll end with the one that doesn't.

Let's start with the 4th line, that most fans appreciated...

5/ Last summer, Brian Boyle was unsigned.

I felt that by placing a slower veteran with two young/fast "buzzards"...you could relieve pressure off that player - while utilizing his standout skills (ie. shot/pass/hitting).

This worked for Kyle Turris...

https://twitter.com/JayIronHook/status/1154461163695947776?s=19

6/ Some feel Kyle Turris has either decreased in speed/muscle...or that the NHL is increasingly populated by faster/stronger players.

These deficiencies should sabotage offensive zone entries, but with strong/fast #Preds "drivers" like Trenin & Blackwell - it's not an issue:

7/ What Kyle Turris always had was his IQ, passing & shot.

Ideally, you want to get him to the point where those skills can be utilized.

This example, Trenin hit leads to a turnover. Blackwell supports with skating. Turris' positioning & shot delivers a #Preds opening goal:

8/ But what if it's not ideal? Say Turris hits a slump.

In the case of Blackwell & Trenin, you can see they have a "rapport" between them.

On their #Preds rushes, they're able to "drive" the play & keep pace with each other. They're able to find each other:

9/ You can further see that "rapport" on their #Preds cycles. They're able to find & create opportunities for each other.

And it's a further example of that diversity (Trenin's strength, Blackwell's speed, & Turris' IQ/passing/shot) creating simple fluid offense:

10/ Now let's go up a tier in skill, and look at another effective #Preds line combination. You'll notice a compositional similarity to the previous line.

You have a speed element in Rocco Grimaldi. A strength element in Nick Bonino. And a wildcard skill element in Craig Smith:

11/ You can see how that #Preds diversity of skill allows a diversity of options when moving the puck through the neutral zone.

Rocco Grimaldi's hyper-sonic speed lets him fly by defenses & receive stray or Hail Mary passes:

12/ To aid #Preds navigation through the neutral zone, Nick Bonino can employ strength & his veteran IQ to get in interception position:

13/ In a prelude to what we'll see offensively - this ALL-🇺🇲 #Preds line of Grimaldi-Bonino-Smith can utilize passing/support/speed to smoothly break through the neutral zone & setup in the offensive zone:

14/ Offensively, the #Preds Grimaldi-Bonino-Smith line follow the "modus operandi" we saw in their zone entry examples.

They tend to employ "quick strike" offense. Coming in fast, passing when needed, shooting when necessary. They don't hold the puck too long or overthink it:

15/ On the cycle, you see similar principles discussed with the Turris line: Grimaldi & Smith drive the line with speed/passing. Bonino provides net-front presence. Fast decision-making.

But comparatively, this #Preds line displays significantly higher passing/positioning skill:

16/ By now you should have noted numerous compositional & stylistic patterns between the two lines described above.

Does it remind you of another particular line? Perhaps the best offensive line the Nashville #Preds have:

17/ Forsberg-Johansen-Arvidsson are collectively referred to as the #Preds "JOFA" line.

And again what we see compositionally is a size element in Ryan Johansen, a speed element in Viktor Arvidsson, and a wildcard skill element in Filip Forsberg...

18/ The #Preds JOFA line are interesting in that Johansen & Forsberg lean bigger & don't necessarily compliment Arvidsson's "hyper-sonic" speed.

So it often falls on Arvidsson to "pedal-to-the-metal" through neutral zone defenses, & enter the offensive zone:

19/ Though similar in composition, what distinguishes the #Preds JOFA Iine from the previous two lines is the potential for *long* offensive cycles.

To the defending opposition, a JOFA cycle can easily be confused for a tense power-play:

20/ Another key design feature of the JOFA line is how it's designed to fuse with the #Preds top four defense (Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, Fabbro).

The idea is to concentrate all your *elite* skill/shooting/passing elements into one overwhelming offensive attack:

21/ By understanding the common characteristics of the lines above, you can employ a simple formula to formulate fluid offensive #Preds lines.

Strength element + Hyper-sonic speed element + Wildcard skill element

Additionally at least two linemates should demonstrate "rapport".

22/ Coach Hynes is currently randomizing #Preds lines.

Comparatively, they just don't display the consistently fluid offense described above. Many are unbalanced & lack some key ingredient (typically "hyper-sonic" speed).

Then there's the issue of "opportunity cost"...

23/ The idea of breaking up JOFA is to improve each line with an elite piece.

But randomly adding pieces doesn't necessarily improve lines. A perfect example of this is the 2nd line of Duchene & Granlund.

We'll look at the travails of this 2nd line, in 'Part 2'...