Thread by @pmdfoster

NEW/EXC: EU member states move to toughen @MichelBarnier
#brexit negotiating mandate on fish - while Friday meeting in London reveals SERIOUS gap on structure/goverance of agreement. /1 thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…

@MichelBarnier First fish: some EU members with fish interests (France, Ireland, Netherlands, Danes, Germans) want to fight for 'status quo' access to UK waters. They were unhappy with original draft that spoke only of Barnier having to "build on" existing quotas - now revised to "uphold" /2

@MichelBarnier Recall that the EU draft mandate was published on Feb 3 - will not be finalised til Feb 25. So all language is up for grabs.

Possible that MS will not be satisfied even with this change - Commission is trying to placate them here. But we'll see if French in particular buy it /3

@MichelBarnier MS with fishing intersets note Barnier's very careful use of language, talking only of a deal that produces “stable” quota shares, rather than maintaining “existing” shares - they know he's ex Fisheries minster and weighs his words VERY carefully. /4

@MichelBarnier The problem is that fishing is a millstone for both sides - the politics are horrible, but in the grand scheme of things fishing is too small a part of UK/EU economy to be allowed to blow up the entire talks. BUT that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. /5

@MichelBarnier Recall @tconnellyRTE excellent that opened with French govt officials nervously calling their coastal prefectures to see if the scallopmen were going to blockade Calais (which they could) - it could get ugly /6

rte.ie/news/analysis-…

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE By the same token @BorisJohnson (also careful with his words) can't be seen to totally lose the fisheries negotiation - the first big clash of #Brexit, and the EU quietly knows it. SO a fudge will need to be done, and fishing states KNOW IT - so are moving to constrain Barnier /7

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson Because those EU fishing states also believe they have leverage - if ONLY - the EU would use it. But internally fisheries administrations know that PMs must weigh wider interests and can see that the 'chiefs' do a deal that they don't like. So LOTS of moving parts here /8

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson I thing you could compare the fishing negotiation to the #Brexit bill talks - highly emotive, but insigificant in the grand scheme economically. A deal go done then, it will get done again.

But now to an arguably BIGGER issue...governance/structure of deal /9

/9

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson There was a meeting in London on Friday with EU and UK officials - the latest round of 'talks about talks' to set out timetable and structure.

Understand it was a very rocky encounter; fundamental differences of approach exposed. /10

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson The EU is insisting that the entire future relationship agreement - including trade, security and other agreements like fishing rights - should be “embedded in an overall governance framework” that covers “all areas” of cooperation./11

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson EU sources say this is to create a nimble, “cross-cutting” dispute resolution mechanism that will enable the EU to hit Britain where it hurts if an independent arbitration panel finds that the UK is in breach of the Agreement. /12

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson Per EU source: “We need a mechanism where if the UK transgresses in an area where it is strong, and believes it can absorb the impact of a sanction, then the EU can take proportionate, reciprocal action in a sector that is equally important to the UK - or vice-versa.” /13

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson British side is understood to have been adamant that it wants only a set of separate, basic agreements - from trade to security, fish to financial services - with each one having its own separate governance mechanism and no cross-cutting punishments. /14

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson They reject EU arguments that the “size and proximity” of the UK, and the depth of necessary relationship, means that it cannot be treated like Canada or Japan which have much more distant, light-touch dispute resolution mechanisms. /15

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson UK also wants to to avoid a repeat of the first phase of talks where the EU retained leverage over the process by refusing to even talk about a trade deal until the UK had settled an agreement on finances, citizens’ rights and the Irish border. /16

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson This was clear in final para of PM statement last week - which talked of fast progress on areas of self-evident mutual intests (including data, financial service equivalence) as a "test" of constructive nature of the negotiations /17

parliament.uk/business/publi…

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson But here's the thing - Commission is VERY clear in internal discussion that even IF it has completed data adequacy/fin serv equivalence reviews it won't *grant* the equivalence until it sees how the rest of talks have gone.

Once again UK wants isolate; EU wants cross-linkage/18

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson This is not just a re-run of David Davis's infamous "battle of the summer" it is fundamental to the future structure of UK-EU relations; if UK wants it piecemeal, then EU will severely limit scope of deal, tho how far will test intra-EU27 unity /19

@MichelBarnier @tconnellyRTE @BorisJohnson Both sides seem to be looking at this from opposite ends of the telescope.

The concern is that this may blow up the entire process long before we even get to the hard part of fish.

Good weekend all 20/ENDS