Thread by @lewis_goodall

For all those with an interest in Irish politics, NI-ROI-UK relations, Brexit and the like, you might want to brace yourself...

Sinn Fein are LEADING in the latest poll.

Sinn Fein: 25
FF: 23
FG: 20

As one source just said to me: “prepare for another earthquake election.”

We’ll see but still- remarkable poll. #GE2020

What accounts for the Sinn Fein surge?

The party didn’t expect it. They’ve only fielded 42 candidates for fear they split their vote in the constituencies. They’ve generally underperformed in elections recently.

But...

1) the FG/FF confidence agreement has made them seem more alike than ever

2) voters don’t associate SF with the IRA under @MaryLouMcDonald as they did with Gerry Adams.

3) FF/FF still saying they won’t work with them (and Labour too) has helped them ride anti-establishment wave

4) huge domestic policy issues in Ireland, especially on housing, inequality and pensions. SF’s radical agenda has appealed to parts of the electorate hungry for change, especially the young- though polling shows they’re appealing to richer voters, often for the first time, too

Lots of scepticism still here in Ireland though. Sinn Fein have tended to overperform in polling. Possible they’ve hit their peak. Standing in only 42 seats puts a ceiling on their ambition. FF/FG still won’t work with them, something @MichealMartinTD said again to me today.

That refusal to work with SF makes another FF/FG supply and conf agreement (in other direction) likely, possibly even a grand coalition. That, however, would make SF the official opposition. Quite the rise. As recently as 2007 they only had 7% of the vote and 4 seats,

Not much to be happy about for Leo Varadkar. His ratings (and the govt’s) are down. Although Martin’s are down too, 46% favour a coalition involving Fianna Fáil – ahead of Fine Gael on 35 per cent and Sinn Féin on 22 per cent.