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I think it will be forced on us by complexity and a technological disruption that will make anodyne promises impossible. You can't have an assured future any more.
What China and the EU on a smaller stage are proving is you can't even be King certain any more. Our problem is that we can't accept not knowing what comes after 2020.
It will probably be one crisis after another. Things aren't going back to normal. This is the new normal.
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
Guys like Avenatti are a mystery. Even if you know what they did it's hard to understand why they did it. Was it for the momentary fame and fortune? Or the thrill of being on the high wire?
Or could it be that peculiar POV that makes everything he does justified in his own eyes? Some crazy people are like that. They twist reality to suit themselves.
I've never been able to decide whether deep down, crazy people knew the real version of events themselves. I think some do but can't face it.
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
I remember it being said of some people years back that "he looks like a Communist". It was usually conveyed by an intense earnestness but sometimes dress and appearance. People had a kind of red-ar then.
Of course it was far from perfect. But even the Communists themselves knew it. They had sessions on how to look "normal".
But it was hard because ideology is not just about abstract belief but being part of tribe. That was the secret of its cohesion and the source of its greatest danger.
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
There will be articles describing how Trump lost the Philippines but it has become almost a Chinese vassal over the last decade under the influx of people, investment, rackets, criminal syndicates, etc. With a govt vulnerable to control by the highest bidder it is a challenge.
What 'lost' the Philippines were the same policies that offshored jobs and pollution to China. It was in evidence when the Chinese gobbled up the South China Sea. Unfortunately the West was too busy fending off the Ukraine to notice.
The Western advocates deal with the university educated, essentially Americanized intelligensia while the Chinese are much more in tune with the crime gangs, fixers and business people. That's a losing proposition.
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Miguel Otero
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A Thread on #China. Some data and some thoughts. I hope you find it useful.

What's different about China's GDP number?
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
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Thread: #China has been 'hijacking the vital internet backbone of western countries' - Chinese government turned to local ISP for intelligence gathering after it signed the Obama-Xi cyber pact in late 2015, researchers say 👍A must read👍 zdnet.com/article/china-…
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🇨🇳 #China will cut export rebate rates to 13% and 9%, respectively, for exports that enjoyed 16% and 10% rebate rates in accordance with value-added tax cuts effective April 1, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance.
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Christophe Barraud🛢
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Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
hearing—"#China's Worldwide #Military Expansion" is a dramatic bellwether of growing concerns in Washington & beyond.

Now online—hard-hitting arguments + many data points, some deeply-analyzed yet hard to find elsewhere in public domain:
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"today, the PLA Navy consists of over 330 surface ships & 66 submarines, nearly 400 combatants. As of 4 May 2018, the @USNavy consists of 283 battle force ships: 211 surface ships and 72 submarines."
bit.ly/HouseIC
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