This could be a big deal: Solar auction in India delivers *firm electricity* for as little as R3.93/kWh, comfortably below the cost of new thermal power at ~R4.30 or more: timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/solar-st…
For non-energy nerds: "Firming" variable renewables is a big issue. Customers and grid operators love the cheap prices of wind and solar but want the reliability they get from conventional power. Many argue that renewables firmed with storage won't be competitive for decades.
The winning projects were firmed with pumped hydro and with batteries, and it looks like they'll be required to have firm availability for an 11-hour peak plus (I presume) normal middle-of-the-day variable solar availability.
More details here: mercomindia.com/greenko-renew-…
I think @DrTongia has argued that renewables have four hurdles in India, 1. Cheaper power than new thermal 2. Cheaper power than existing thermal 3. Cheaper firm power than new thermal 4. Cheaper firm power than existing thermal.
This bid seems to take us to stage 3.
This bid seems to take us to stage 3.
@DrTongia The NTPC average tariff is still cheaper than this, iirc ~R3.63/kWh. So *existing* thermal power is still cheaper, but renewables are closing in.
As @solar_chase would point out, the devil is in the detail on renewable auctions so we'll have to wait to understand it better.
As @solar_chase would point out, the devil is in the detail on renewable auctions so we'll have to wait to understand it better.
@DrTongia @solar_chase Still, I'm dazzled how every time wise heads say "OK renewables have done that, but can they do *this*?" ... within about 18 months, renewables *are* doing "this" and it's nbd.
Betting against the economics of renewables has been a great way to lose money in recent decades.
Betting against the economics of renewables has been a great way to lose money in recent decades.
One small clarification: The bidders will actually receive a R4.04 average tariff, as the weighted average of their bids. The R3.93 is the quoted average tariff from the cheapest of the winning bidders.
It's worth bearing in mind that India has no plans to add thermal power beyond existing projects until 2027 at the earliest, and the 48GW additions till then will just net out retiring plants.
I find it hard to believe that we've not already hit peak coal generation capacity. Still potential for increased generation given low capacity factors, but this is not what a booming coal power industry looks like.
Gah, one more error. It's six hours of firm peak generation, not 11 as I said above (two hours in morning, four in evening)
