THREAD: Who are “Putin’s children” and how will the next generation of Russia’s political class act as they prepare for their patron to (eventually) hand off power to them? A new report by @AndrKolesnikov, @dnsvlkv peers into the future, drawing on a series of focus groups. 1/
@AndrKolesnikov @dnsvlkv “Already a collective effort is underway to make the transition [to the post-Putin era] as painless as possible and ensure public support for a change in leadership.” 2/ 
@AndrKolesnikov @dnsvlkv Obedient technocrats like newly-appointed PM Mishushtin will play an important role. But don’t expect them to make key decisions about Russia’s future course. That role is reserved for the siloviki, along w other insiders who have profited the most from Putin’s presidency. 3/
@AndrKolesnikov @dnsvlkv This group now includes many of the children of the current elite who have now taken top jobs in government and business, now faces a serious challenge--how to keep the assets they have acquired. 4/
@AndrKolesnikov @dnsvlkv “The problem the elites face, as one interviewee put it, is that ‘it’s impossible to inherit property fused with the state.’ If the fathers are removed from power, then the sons will instantly cease to be successful business leaders.” 5/
@AndrKolesnikov @dnsvlkv “The hope in the Kremlin is that when Putin’s fourth presidential term ends, everything will stay basically the same, despite the impression of a changeover.” 6/
@AndrKolesnikov @dnsvlkv That is the key task facing Russia’s technocrats. They have to clean up the messes created in recent years and keep the economy basically on track so that the public can be bought off. 7/
@AndrKolesnikov @dnsvlkv Unfortunately for them, the pre-2024 “waiting game is already having a deleterious effect on the way that Russia is managed. Contrary to the belief of many outsiders, the country is not being micromanaged by the Kremlin and most edicts from the top have a didactic purpose.” 8/
@AndrKolesnikov @dnsvlkv The Kremlin “recommends how officials should behave. Bureaucrats and managers are given a great deal of latitude. An average member of today’s elite can be described as a kind of ‘little Putin.’” 9/
@AndrKolesnikov @dnsvlkv “That person’s administrative decisions and political behavior are guided by the question ‘What would Putin do in my place?’ Countless ‘little Putins’ try to guess how the ‘big Putin’ would behave in their place and add their own personal agendas into the equation. END/
