Thread by @tconnellyRTE

@BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @vivamjm @StefaanDeRynck @andyblatch64 @LeftPeggers @Lady_stormrider Thanks Pauline, you're right: this does require further clarification. Having a zero-tariff FTA between the EU + UK will help in the short term. If there are no tariffs, there shd be no "at risk" implication for GB-NI goods crossing the land border. I'll flesh this out below

@BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @vivamjm @StefaanDeRynck @andyblatch64 @LeftPeggers @Lady_stormrider But over time there will be an implication once the UK starts to develop its own tariff lines via free trade deals with other countries. If the UK imports Australian wine or lamb at a lower tariff than the EU does, then what happens if those goods enter NI?

@BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @vivamjm @StefaanDeRynck @andyblatch64 @LeftPeggers @Lady_stormrider This was the point of Boris Johnson’s big sell to the DUP: that under the Protocol, NI would fully benefit from the UK’s free trade deals (and, of course, benefit from the EU’s free trade agreements

@BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @vivamjm @StefaanDeRynck @andyblatch64 @LeftPeggers @Lady_stormrider In other words, it would be unfair if a supermarket in Manchester could import cheap lamb but one in Belfast couldn’t

@BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @vivamjm @StefaanDeRynck @andyblatch64 @LeftPeggers @Lady_stormrider So what happens if those cheaper goods then cross into NI?

Again, the EU and UK will have to work out which goods are “at risk” of crossing the border and entering the single market (and undercutting EU products because of the lower tariff)

@BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @vivamjm @StefaanDeRynck @andyblatch64 @LeftPeggers @Lady_stormrider This will be done by the Joint Committee. Article 5(2) of the Protocol says a “criteria” will be established to ensure that the those cheaper, lower-tariffed goods won’t be added to a manufacturing process and sold on across the border or move across directly

@BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @vivamjm @StefaanDeRynck @andyblatch64 @LeftPeggers @Lady_stormrider The problem is, neither side has worked out what the criteria should be

This is where a tariff reimbursement or a tariff exemption will be crucial. A tariff reimbursement means you can track the benficiary and be sure the goods have ended up in NI and aren’t going any further

@BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @vivamjm @StefaanDeRynck @andyblatch64 @LeftPeggers @Lady_stormrider An exemption is more difficult. What if you exempted tomatoes from EU tariffs? They could be processed and end up in a product that is sold on across the border.

@BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @vivamjm @StefaanDeRynck @andyblatch64 @LeftPeggers @Lady_stormrider Again if it’s wine, how do you know the wine isn’t going to be sold on across the border?

@BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @vivamjm @StefaanDeRynck @andyblatch64 @LeftPeggers @Lady_stormrider A simple method would be to define the criteria by categories of goods. But we may end up with endless lists of goods which the Joint Committee has to wrangle over in terms of whether they are at risk or not

@BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @vivamjm @StefaanDeRynck @andyblatch64 @LeftPeggers @Lady_stormrider My understanding is these discussions have not yet taken place between the EU and UK. Nor has the European Commission got into this level of detail with member states

@BastidonPauline @AnnaJerzewska @vivamjm @StefaanDeRynck @andyblatch64 @LeftPeggers @Lady_stormrider The Commission may insist that the UK has to come forward with its ideas. But it's going to be one heck of a mess...