Thread by @nicktolhurst

Let’s, for sake of argument, assume UK govt is right:

1. UK won’t align with EU
2. There’ll be advantages to this
3. It will sign trade deals with many countries

A hell of a lot of assumptions - but let’s be generous.

This still would be very problematic for UK.

Here’s why...

2/

Trade - like business in general - has a high degree of inertia.

Factories aren’t built, workers aren’t reskilled, Commission agents don’t change contacts, tastes don’t change immediately the moment trade deals signed. Consumers used to certain goods will stay with these...

3/

An example:
The UK car industry won’t immediately switch to a world player on the SUV market the moment ink is dry on a non-EU trade deals.

UK consumers or UK dealers won’t immediately stop buying EU made cars simply because tariffs/frictions now exist between them.

4/

Yes trade deals increase growth. But it’s a cumulative effect:
1. The more trade deals you have
2. The more are signed with your biggest & nearest trade partners
3. The more time passes

- the more economies develop ways to reap the benefits.

5/

The idea that UK can extract these benefits & turn them into sizable economic effects - indeed enough to outweigh the costs of Brexit - significantly before the 2024 election is a fantasy - a fantasy believed by people who’ve no idea how bussines operates.

6/

So even if brexiters & UK govt are right - the govt grinding in Brexit won’t benefit from it in the short term.

As every businessman knows - It’s quicker to lose business than to win new trade.

..that’s even if Brexit is a success.

& spoiler everyone:
it won’t be.

/Ends