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Polls in NV were quite good.

Final poll average
Sanders 30.5
Buttigieg 15.3
Biden 14.4
Warren 11.8
Steyer 10.2
Klobuchar 8.9

Actual 1st vote (what polls are trying to predict)
Sanders 34.0
Biden 17.6
Buttigieg 15.4
Warren 12.8
Klobuchar 9.6
Steyer 9.1

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
Sanders and Biden overperformed slightly but remember that polls contain undecided voters so there are usually a couple of candidates who pick up the bulk of the undecideds. Overall, this is impressive accuracy for polling of a caucus.
The final @DataProgress poll (Sanders 35, Biden 16, Warren 16, Buttigieg 15) was particularly good.

p.s. Some folks are comparing polls that predict the initial popular vote to NV's *county delegate* numbers. That's not an 🍏-to-🍏 comparison so those folks are wrong/confused.
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More from @NateSilver538 see all

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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
OK, Super Tuesday win probabilities. Then I'll go to bed.

CA—Sanders 96%
TX—Biden 51%, Sanders 42%, Bloomberg 7%
NC—Biden 69%, Sanders 21%, Bloomberg 10%
VA—Biden 50%, Sanders 39%, Bloomberg 10%
MA—Sanders 63%, Warren 29%
MN—Klobuchar 57%, Sanders 39%
CO—Sanders 85%, Biden 6%, Warren 5%
TN—Biden 61%, Sanders 24%, Bloomberg 12%
AL—Biden 78%, Bloomberg 11%, Sanders 10%
OK—Biden 45%, Bloomberg 26%, Sanders 26%
AR—Biden 39%, Sanders 29, Bloomberg 29%, Buttigieg 6%
UT—Sanders 88%, Warren 5%
ME—Sanders 67%, Biden 12%, Bloomberg 9%, Warren 6%, Buttigieg 6%
VT—Sanders >99%
AS—Sanders 36%, Biden 30%, Bloomberg 20%, Warren 8%
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The problem with campaign coverage is that the press does analysis but doesn't take it seriously and kind of sucks at it. (Much worse than baseball, where the profession has improved and advanced.) Like, most of this stuff wasn't that hard to see.
It wasn't hard to see that Biden, even in his diminished state, still had one of the 2 broadest coalitions along with Sanders. Certainly broader than Buttigieg. Wasn't hard to see, after he'd been wrongly counted out the whole campaign, that SC could be a comeback moment for him.
It wasn't hard to see that Bloomberg had the *potential* to flop. Wasn't hard to see that momentum often reverses itself, as it has for the past 6 zillion primaries, and that a rising object today is often a falling one a week later.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Yeah, those were fine. And Trafalgar (Biden +21) was close enough. Others need to take a deeper look. Polls have been completely fucking up the black vote in Democratic primaries in the South for *years*.
What happened with Obama in 2008, Clinton in 2016 and now Biden in SC in 2020 is that they won by *much* larger margins in the South than polls showed. But because the polls "called" the winner right, they didn't get a lot of shit for it, and never fixed the problems.
If you want to make polls better as a news consumer, you should give them grief when they're way off on the margin and not worry about the winner so much.

Biden +29 when the poll had Biden +4 is a HUGE fuck-up.

Sanders +1 when it showed Biden +4 is fine; within the MOE.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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MichaelStarr Hopkins
@Theonlyhonest
Biden is really starting to move the needle in South Carolina. Here in Columbia you can feel an undercurrent for Biden.
The Sanders supporters that I talked to were overwhelmingly under 30 years old. They all said that would support whoever won if it meant that they’d beat Trump.
The Biden supporters were overwhelmingly voters over thirty who were Biden supporters who had shifted to other candidates and then came back after Sanders began to surge.
Read 10 tweets
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☇RiotWomenn☇
@riotwomennn
Biden is the only 2020 Democratic candidate beating Trump in polls of Florida and Virginia — two swing states with 42 electoral votes that could prove pivotal. axios.com/biden-trump-fl…
Bernie Sanders is walking poison for Democrats. That's why Republicans support him. He is Trump's only hope

Biden's lead over Trump beats Sanders' lead over Trump in all four of these states.

Remember, no Bernie national attack ads at this point

VP Joe Biden Leads by 6 in New Iowa Poll

Source: Neighborhood
Research and Media (B rated poll by 538)

Iowa, Jan 14-17, 2020, 300 LV

Biden - 23%
Buttigieg - 17%
Warren - 15%
Klobuchar - 11%
Sanders - 10%
Yang - 2%
Steyer - 2%

Read 3 tweets
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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
THREAD
Response to #Biden skipping the California Dems is scathing.

Biden's "refusal to show up only reinforces the idea that he’s an elitist and he is more interested in collecting big checks in CA than being in genuine touch with grassroots activists."
usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
#Buttigieg and #Warren took Biden on.
Buttigieg said that "the riskiest thing we could do is try to play it safe.... In these times, Democrats can no more promise to take us back to the 2000s or 1990s than conservatives can take us back to the 1950s.”

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… …
#Warren: “Some Democrats in Washington believe the only changes we can get are tweaks & nudges.If they dream at all, they dream small.Some say if we’d all just calm down, Republicans will come to their senses. Our country is in a time of crisis. The time for small ideas is over.”
Read 9 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
My poll to address the fake poll on Monday that gave #Biden a 32pt lead but then turned that just mean 180 people has closed. The poll was for 50 and under.

Here are the results:
Harris 39%
Buttigieg 38%
Warren 32%
Castro 23%
Klobuchar 21%
Beto 18%
Bernie 16%
Biden 13%
1/
The poll is still up so you can see the results.
Just under 24k people voted.
There were several hundred write-ins, nearly half of which were @AndrewYang. Also getting write-ins: Inslee, Tulsi, Swalwell, Williamson, Gillibrand, Booker.
It was a good poll.
Thank you so much.
2/
The function was to point out that people 50 and under who mostly do not have cell phones are not being repped in these national polls. And also that those small samplings of 400 or 50 people are not representative.
3/
Read 5 tweets
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Michael Green
@andmichaelgreen
#VOTE like you remember family separation.

#Vote like you remember Kavanaugh.

#Vote like you remember “Fine people on both sides.”
#Vote like you remember Helsinki.

#Vote like you remember Khizr and Ghazala Khan.

#Vote like you remember the fake Blind Trust.

#Vote like you remember their vow to take away your health care.
#Vote like you remember “alternative Facts.”

#Vote like you remember his tax returns.

#Vote like you remember the dismantling of the EPA.

#Vote LIKE YOU REMEMBER EVERY MEMBER OF THE GOP CONGRESS WHO ALLOWED ALL OF THIS TO HAPPEN.
Read 33 tweets

Trending hashtags

#buttigieg #Klobuchar #Castro #ElizabethWarren #DemDebate2 #Philly #Harris #Bernie #poll #Warren #MuellerReport #BennBill #Gillibrand #Biden #biden #ToryBritain #zones #BrexitVote #bribery #GOP #HillaryClinton #exvangelicals #Montana #polls #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica

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