Thread by @NateSilver538

Super Tuesday win probabilities (NOT vote share!).

Note: These may change significantly based on SC and other stuff. I'm listing everyone who's >=5%.

CA—Sanders 79%, Biden 9%, Bloomberg 6%
TX—Sanders 59%, Biden 26%, Bloomberg 11%
NC—Sanders 52%, Biden 24%, Bloomberg 20%

VA—Sanders 49%, Biden 24%, Bloomberg 24%
MA—Sanders 57%, Warren 26%, Biden 8%, Bloomberg 5%
MN—Klobuchar 49%, Sanders 45%
CO—Sanders 83%, Warren 6%, Biden 6%
TN—Sanders 45%, Biden 33%, Bloomberg 17%
AL—Biden 55%, Sanders 25%, Bloomberg 18%

OK—Sanders 36%, Bloomberg 31%, Biden 26%
AR—Sanders 40%, Bloomberg 28%, Biden 22%, Buttigieg 7%
UT—Sanders 87%, Warren 5%
ME—Sanders 67%, Bloomberg 10%, Warren 9%, Buttigieg 7%, Biden 7%
VT—Sanders >99%
AS—Sanders 38%, Biden 26%, Bloomberg 23%, Warren 8%

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…