Thread by @eriktorenberg

Been reading a bit about Nixon & LBJ and how that era informs today. Some musings & takeaways:

The contrast between JFK -> Nixon is an interesting comparison to Obama - > Trump. 

Reaction couldn’t be starker. Both benefited from new technologies.

It’s interesting to think that democrats were anti-immigration only up until recently.

Schumer, Pelosi, etc were pro-border until recently

The left has been typically more anti immigration due to perceived impact on labor & union influence—Immigrants taking jobs from Americans.

Democrats only went identitarian relatively recently too:

Remember the democrats were party of south and segregation until LBJ (Lincoln was a republican— confederates were democrats).

Recently, Democrats became party for the elites, while republicans picked up working class.

This new shift coincided w/ the rise of managerial class in 70s

The democrats built a coalition of highly educated coastal elites working in finance, media, & tech, + the identity groups

The republicans picked up old money & the working class & the libertarians & the religious

The reversal was deliberate move by LBJ. 

This reversal happened before. (h/t @balajis for this framework):

Zooming out:

In 1865, republicans gained moral authority from winning civil war.

Over time, moral authority turns to economic authority.

By 1915, republicans became party of rich.

Democrats realigned as party of poor under FDR, republicans start losing moral authority.

By 1965, democrats regain moral authority from civil rights.

Democrats turn moral authority into economic authority.

by 2015, democrats become party of rich, have all the top actors/professors/journalists/tech CEOs, republicans start becoming party of the poor. 

Despite each version having its own idiosyncrasies...the cycle continues.

Will be interesting to see what happens next...