Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 1 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
Here are our low (10th percentile) and high (90th percentile) ranges for the *post-realignment* vote in NV.

Sanders low: 24 high: 52
Buttigieg low: 6 high: 30
Biden low: 5 high: 27
Warren low: 3 high: 23
Steyer low: 2 high: 19
Klobuchar low: 1 high: 17

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
As in Iowa, voters may realign if their candidate doesn't get 15% in their precinct. That could allow Sanders to run up the score, although candidates such as Warren and Buttigieg (who are frequent 2nd choices) also tend to benefit from the process *if* they're at 15% initially.
On the flip side, if [insert candidate here] got say 10% of the vote statewide, that could easily decline to 5% in the of the post-realignment vote if they're not viable in many precincts. That's how the low side of the ranges for the non-Bernie candidates is so low.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Nate Silver

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NateSilver538 see all

Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
At a Steyer event at a chicken restaurant in Dorchester County, SC and he comes across as... not an A+ politician but reasonably natural on the stump. It's hard not to think about the contrast to Bloomberg.
Notably sparse applause when he brings up his support for reparations before the older, mostly (maybe 75-80%) white audience.
He also comes across, at least rhetorically, as a bit more of a populist than you'd think, though with plenty of technocratic notes. People assume he's mostly taking his vote from Biden but I'd expect he's also causing some problems for Warren here.
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
UPDATED Super Tuesday win probabilities, where you can see the impact of Biden's good polling in SC & other Southern states. Bernie looks as good as ever outside the South.

CA—Sanders 86%, Biden 9%
TX—Biden 45%, Sanders 42%, Bloomberg 9%
NC—Biden 45%, Sanders 35%, Bloomberg 19%
VA—Sanders 44%, Biden 38%, Bloomberg 16%
MA—Sanders 53%, Warren 28%, Biden 11%, Buttigieg 5%
MN—Klobuchar 53%, Sanders 40%
CO—Sanders 78%, Warren 9%, Biden 8%
TN—Biden 50%, Sanders 29%, Bloomberg 17%
AL—Biden 68%, Bloomberg 16%, Sanders 13%
OK—Biden 37%, Bloomberg 30%, Sanders 28%
AR—Biden 31%, Sanders 30%, Bloomberg 29%, Buttigieg 8%
UT—Sanders 86%, Warren 5%
ME—Sanders 63%, Biden 11%, Bloomberg 10%, Warren 9%, Buttigieg 8%
VT—Sanders >99%
AS—Sanders 35%, Biden 30%, Bloomberg 20%, Warren 9%
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
With events (primaries, debates, etc.) piling on top of one another in rapid succession it's not super easy to characterize the trajectory of the polls right now.

Some questions I have:
BIDEN no longer seems to be falling. But is he rising? And if so, is it a broad-based rise, or concentrated among specific groups/in certain states?

BLOOMBERG clearly got the wind knocked out of his sails. Has he steadied himself? If not, is it a slow deflation or a crash?
With SANDERS, the long-term trajectory is obviously positive. But you can squint and make several different cases (rising, falling, steady) for the short term. And there's still a gap between his national polls (better) and state polls (less good). What's going on there?
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Scott Stedman
@ScottMStedman
7.7% in.

Sanders 29.3%
Buttigieg 21.3%
Klobuchar 18.7%
Warren 10.9% results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/primary/n…
9.4% in

Sanders 29.3%
Buttigieg 21.6%
Klobuchar 18.5%
11.8% in

Sanders 28.1%
Buttigieg 22.7%
Klobuchar 18.6%
Read 27 tweets
Profile picture
The New York Times
@nytimes
Breaking News: Bernie Sanders has opened up a lead in Iowa in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely caucusgoers found nyti.ms/2vmgyM5
With just a week until the Iowa caucuses, here's the state of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in Iowa, according to the new Times-Siena poll:
—Bernie Sanders, 25%
—Pete Buttigieg, 18%
—Joe Biden, 17%
—Elizabeth Warren, 15%
—Amy Klobuchar, 8%
Bernie Sanders's surge comes at Elizabeth Warren's expense. She's dropped from her lead in the last Times-Siena survey, in October, while Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg have been stagnant. Amy Klobuchar is the only other candidate approaching double digits. nyti.ms/2vmgyM5
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
HUGE.
#Biden & #Bernie continue to plummet. I wrote last month that #Buttigieg was the natural inheritor of voters divesting of Biden. #Warren is the natural inheritor of the left vote. #Harris, still the most charismatic candidate, has now tripled her Iowa standing since June.
This is the Democratic field. The debates both winnowed the field and reshuffled the deck. Despite massive help from MSM that included two full hours on Chris Cuomo in prime time, much spent attacking Harris and progressives, Biden fails to move his campaign forward.
Sanders has released a couple of videos vomosring himself to FDR, who was president when Sanders was born in 1941. Both Biden and Bernie focusing on the past while Harris and Warren roll out forward-thinking policy almost daily.

This is why the polls are shaking out as they are.
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Peter Daou
@peterdaou
The Democratic field is effectively #Biden, #Warren, #Sanders, #Harris, and #Buttigieg

#DemDebate2
To clarify, I'm going by poll averages over the past few months. I don't think the debates have materially changed the dynamics of the race or altered the top tier.
That said, I think Biden's recent downward drift and Warren's rise will continue.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden has always been a disastrous candidate for women and thus far is performing badly as ever.
Biden's rollout in majority black Philly was small, majority suburban and male.
Biden has zero policy, but much baggage.
Biden is NOT our future.
The future is female.
I know no one who is pro-Biden.
Not my MIL who rolls her eyes over Biden but likes Warren nor a single other family member, friend, colleague or neighbor, whether boomer, gen x or millennial.
Polling has been limited and 67% say they are still looking while Biden's numbers drop.
This long, well-researched piece on Biden by @rtraister is the story of Biden & women. It clarifies why he's not the choice for an electorate that has moved left & younger. The excitement is for the women & younger men. Debates will shift the narrative.
thecut.com/2019/03/joe-bi…
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
THREAD
Response to #Biden skipping the California Dems is scathing.

Biden's "refusal to show up only reinforces the idea that he’s an elitist and he is more interested in collecting big checks in CA than being in genuine touch with grassroots activists."
usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
#Buttigieg and #Warren took Biden on.
Buttigieg said that "the riskiest thing we could do is try to play it safe.... In these times, Democrats can no more promise to take us back to the 2000s or 1990s than conservatives can take us back to the 1950s.”

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… …
#Warren: “Some Democrats in Washington believe the only changes we can get are tweaks & nudges.If they dream at all, they dream small.Some say if we’d all just calm down, Republicans will come to their senses. Our country is in a time of crisis. The time for small ideas is over.”
Read 9 tweets

Trending hashtags

#GOP #BloodAndTeeth #Thueringen #frisky #Iowa #LGBTQ #Sanders #Biden #joe #Warren #Trump #Castro #VOTE #SATIRE #WerteUnion #LarryBartels #DemDebate #VoteBlueNoMatterWho #Linken #ButtaBomma #AKK #exvangelicals #momentum #Booker #Links

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!