SEB did some nice work on shale. Let me share. US Shale oil DUC inventory is now drawing at fastest pace in history, both in relative and abolute terms. Monthly decline will likely rise to more than 300 wells per month in December 2020. That is what capital starvation does. #OOTT 
Shale oil production is still rising. Do note though how production declined on a dime at end of 2014. This was & remains due to very strong first and second year decline rate of up to 75%. So when completion rates start to decline, production will too within months. #OOTT
And completion rates turn down fast. In Oct 2019, 1373 wells were completed. If 98 wells or 7% less wells are completed in Dec vs Oct (which is likely), shale will have ZERO growth. This is what the blue bars below show. It is the steady state of completions needed to stay still.
The moment new production falls below losses (below in bbl/d) in existing production, then overall net production will decline.
Drilling productivity won't come to resuce! As of Oct 19, there is zero productivity gains from drilling better wells. High grading has been done. Best locations are being drilled up. No Tier 1 "plus" locations to fool investors with a "technology" miracle. Game over! #OOTT
SEB-s estimated shale oil rig productivity versus EIA below. According to them, IEA is over-estimating productivity when DUC inventory is declining like now and under-estimating prod. when DUC inventory is rising like in 2017.
