Let me pick up, where I left off yesterday: As #covid19 efforts shift from containment to mitigation, we have a window of opportunity to prepare the world. What does that mean?
There is a whole range of questions about what measures could and should be taken to slow down #SARSCoV2. I recommend this great thread by @mlipsitch to get a start on that.
@mlipsitch We will be talking about this a lot in the coming days and weeks. Every society will have to figure out what measures they deem reasonable and appropriate. But that is a discussion that needs to happen! So I wanted to focus on the point I raised yesterday about communication.
@mlipsitch On Friday I asked @DrTedros at what point he would consider the “window of opportunity” to contain #SARSCoV2 closed and what strategy @WHO would shift to at that point. His answer (basically): Scientists are looking at this. “We expect their analysis and also recommendations”.
@mlipsitch @DrTedros @WHO I don’t think that is good enough anymore. People say „Don‘t get ahead of yourself“ but that‘s exactly what we need to do now collectively. We need to look at a scary future scenario, knowing it might still be avoided, so that we are prepared if it does come.
@mlipsitch @DrTedros @WHO There is a lot of uncertainty about how the #COVID19 epidemic will play out. Will warming weather help defeat the virus? Will some old drugs turn out to work against this new foe? Will the deadliness of the virus turn out to be lower than we fear right now?
@mlipsitch @DrTedros @WHO We all hope that things will turn out well. But there is now clearly a decent chance that this virus spreads across the world in a way that makes counting cases or restricting travel pointless. And people communicating about #COVID19 should be explaining that.
@mlipsitch @DrTedros @WHO I’ve talked to risk communication experts Peter Sandman and Jody Lanard in past outbreaks and it is really worth reading this piece of theirs on @MackayIM's blog (another person worth following!) virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-t…
@mlipsitch @DrTedros @WHO @MackayIM One important point they make: “The most crucial (and overdue) risk communication task for the next few days is to help people visualize their communities when ‘keeping it out’ – containment – is no longer relevant.“
@mlipsitch @DrTedros @WHO @MackayIM Another great point that Lanard and Sandman make is that even officials acknowledging what is happening often focus on how their agencies are preparing for this new phase. They are misperceiving the public as “audience”.
@mlipsitch @DrTedros @WHO @MackayIM “‘Audience' is the wrong frame. We are all stakeholders, and we don’t just want to hear what officials are doing. We want to hear what we can do too.” As we are about to start into a new week of this #COVID19 outbreak, that is what I want to see officials acknowledging!
@mlipsitch @DrTedros @WHO @MackayIM So: We need to talk about what a #COVID19 pandemic would look like. Not because it is inevitable. Not to create panic. But to allow people to prepare for that possible future. One of the ironies of a pandemic is that as the virus goes global, local action becomes more important!
