Thread by @biancoresearch

A tweet storm on the China Cov-19 statistics

Remember these are OFFICIAL numbers and definitions have been revised several times.

@MishGEA @ErikSTownsend @chrismartenson @RMKOutFront @ttmygh @alykhansatchu @jodigraphics15

(Please note the warning in the last tweet)

(1/7)

Total China is now at 77k.

Growth rate has flattened out. If it did not after 40 days of exponential growth, everyone on the planet will be infected 3 or 4 times.

I think the shape is right, no confidence on the level. 2x higher (160k)? 10x higher (800k)? Higher?

(2/7)

Here is the comparison of Covid-19 to SARS and the Swine Flu (again these are official statistics)

And Covid-19 is not done.

(3/7)

Note that Covid-19 has officially killed more than 2X of SARS and Swine Flu COMBINED.

And Covid-19 is not done.

(4/7)

The simple death rate (total deaths/total cases) has now jumped to 3.4%, a new high.

As the bottom panel says, this is 34x more lethal than the seasonal flu.

Offered thoughts on this yesterday

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1231259372141019136

(5/7)

And "serious cases" for Covid-19 are 17.4% of all cases. The seasonal flu is 1.2%.

So this is 14.5x more serious than the seasonal flu.

(6/7)

Finally, financial types think this is the flu ("killed 14k last yr")

It is completely irresponsible to make this statement.

This is far more serious. So, stop with the amateur virology because you're only interested in a short-term gains

It is reflects poorly on you,

(7/7)