Thread by @juliaoftoronto

.@WHO presser:

"We are encouraged by the continued decline in cases in China," @DrTedros says, and his team in China has concluded their mission.

They found an epidemic peak between Jan 23 and Feb 2 and has been declining since then.

No significant change in DNA of virus.

@WHO @DrTedros Case fatality rate, according to WHO:
- 2-4 percent in Wuhan
- 0.7 percent outside Wuhan

Bruce Alyward will give more details from the report tomorrow...

@WHO @DrTedros .@DrTedros is saying this virus can still be contained but cases in Italy, South Korea, and Iran are "deeply concerning."

"For the moment, we're not witnessing uncontained global spread of this virus... Does this virus have pandemic potential? Absolutely. Are we there yet?" No

@WHO @DrTedros Instead, @DrTedros says we see **epidemics** in multiple parts of the world. "Using the word pandemic now doesn't fit the facts but may certainly cause fear."

(Thot epidemics in multiple parts of the world are a pandemic?)

"This is not the time to focus on what word we use."

@WHO @DrTedros When asked about what constitutes a pandemic, @DrMikeRyan explains it's a concept where the world's population has been exposed to a virus

"What we don't understand yet in #covid19 are the absolute transmission dynamics."

Points to decrease in cases in China...

@WHO @DrTedros @DrMikeRyan And increase in cases in South Korea. Too early to declare a pandemic, he adds. "We're still trying to avoid that reality."

Now is a time for preparation, @DrMikeRyan says...

@WHO @DrTedros @DrMikeRyan Side note: I'm surprised @DrTedros didn't use the opportunity after @HelenBranswell 's question — about whether WHO is recommending travel restrictions  — to reaffirm WHO's commitment to the spirit of IHR, which travel/trade bans violate.

@WHO @DrTedros @DrMikeRyan @HelenBranswell .@DrMikeRyan says we still don't know the outlook over the next few months. Could settle into an endemic pattern of transmission or we might be facing a pandemic.

Mission from China report will give us hints about what to do to prepare.

@WHO @DrTedros @DrMikeRyan @HelenBranswell Most important message from this presser seems to be, despite the sudden upticks of virus in several countries, WHO is sticking with the message that this can still be contained, which is probably appropriate given their role.

@WHO @DrTedros @DrMikeRyan @HelenBranswell "There is no zero risk. We cannot shut down the world. That's not going to work because disease can spread between nations." We can't stop the virus from spreading — so focus on reducing the risk of transmission and increasing survival of patients who get sick, says @DrMikeRyan