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.@WHO just had a really lonnngggg press call on findings from mission to China #COVID19 and I wrote a lonnngggg thread.



So a quick sum on key messages:

1) There's not a lot of evidence of undetected, mild cases in China yet.. .
Doesn't mean we won't find them but just not seeing a lot in China yet so we'll have to wait on antibody tests to clarify.

2) China has developed serology tests so we might have answers on how far this virus has spread soon.

3) Epidemic seems to have peaked in China and...
WHO's mission chief Bruce Aylward says that's because of China's drastic measures to contain the virus: the quarantines, social distancing, responses in hospitals, etc.

4) Other countries should learn from China that they can also break #covid19 epidemics.
And be ready for cases and community transmission NOW.

[[Side note: all said w/o discussion of concerns about human rights violations in China or applicability of its extreme measures in other countries
vox.com/2020/2/10/2112… ]]
5) We can't assume the case fatality rate (CFR) outside of China will be lower — Aylward says China is doing a great job of keeping people alive. So we might see other countries with equal or worse CFRs, particularly in low-resource settings.
[Side note, according to WHO, CFR outside of China is lower at the moment: 2-4 percent in China versus less than one percent outside — but many outbreaks outside to date have happened in high-income countries]
6) Countries need: beds to isolate people, plan to quarantine close contacts, oxygen support, lab capacity ready, and good comms with their populations, including messaging about:

Hand 🖐️washing
Don't run on masks/medical supplies
Expect outbreaks
That's all I can process now!
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