We can’t talk about a way out of Lebanon’s crisis w/o knowing how deep of a hole we’re in. Depending on how we measure this, the consolidated balance sheets of the gov’t, the banks, and BdL point to a gap of anywhere between $40 & 80 bn (w/ various assumptions given opaque data) 
The dark blue bar nets resident FX deposits from the consolidated net foreign asset position banks (nonresidents) and BdL. This is essentially a measure of the lollarisation rate and shows the lack of FX in the system to satisfy FX resident deposits. see @AndyKhalil1 below
@AndyKhalil1 But the gap need not be so big. Some resident $ loans will be paid for using resident $ deposits. Not all though. So assume half will (the other half in LBP), and you get the red bar.
@AndyKhalil1 We can also consolidate from a FX perspective, regardless of residency. Light blue bar nets banks' estimated $ deposits with BdL against the consolidated net FX assets of both (incl resident $ assets/liab). This is the common measure of BdL’s net reserves. -$40bn hole right there
@AndyKhalil1 Tweaking assumptions. Assume BdL’s usable reserves are much lower by taking out banks’ reserve requirements = grey bar. Or assume that 70% of BdL’s famous “Other Assets” are in $ = yellow bar.
@AndyKhalil1 That still leaves us with a wide range of between -$52bn and -$65bn roughly. That's an uncomfortably wide range, necessitated by the fact that we don't have enough data. BdL gross reserves still a matter of dispute, as is $ portion of bank deposits with BdL
@AndyKhalil1 We shouldn't be guessing these numbers at this stage. Hopefully enough accurate data was shared with IMF to give them a sense of how bad it "really" is. And the public should be informed. Better knowing than continuing to guess.
@AndyKhalil1 Have talked a lot about this with @AndyKhalil1 and @EHSANI22 and many others. See their estimates/figures on the blog as well @finance4lebanon
