How much foreign reserves does Lebanon’s central bank actually have? And how much of those can be used? There is surprisingly little clarity on this figure. Estimates vary widely, but by some measures (below), out of a gross of ~$30bn, only $7bn-18bn are "usable" 👇 
We cannot be talking about whether Lebanon should default or not without knowing how much dollars BdL has. The gross reported figure is around $30bn in hard-currency liquid reserves, which exclude the $13.9bn in Gold and the $5.7bn that BdL currently holds on its balance sheet
Of that $30bn, there is about $13.6 in FX reserves requirements, which is a share of FX deposits that commercial banks have to keep with the central bank. This is standard practice, but still means that almost half of available reserves are actually peoples' deposits
That leaves BdL with about $18bn. Another way to think about it is to strip out the banks' net foreign asset position, which is around -$24bn currently, which in theory would need to be covered by reserves. That would leave BdL with around $7bn in "usable" reserves
Granted, this is a wide range, which some have suggested implies the figures are unreliable and shouldn't be used. But even if "usable" is moot in times of crisis, it's still a ballpark. Every negotiation with creditors will involve dissecting this number over and over again
Finally, keep in mind what other pressures there are on reserves. Assuming continued cap. controls, no new inflows, 30% import compression, and $4.4bn in eurobond amortization this year, Lebanon still needs around $11bn this year. That range is suddenly much more relevant.
