Amid the ongoing debate/indecision in #Lebanon over repaying the March bond, foreign funds have increased their holdings of the 2020 maturities by $255mn. A very very conservative* estimate of FX outflows should all 2020s be repaid is now $1bn (up from $760mn two months ago) 
* This is a lower bound and very conservative estimate b/c a) it includes only reporting funds (i.e excl hedge funds, etc); b) reporting dates are lagging; c) doesn't capture most of the latest activity in Jan.
Still, even as a minimum, the share of foreign funds owning the short-end of the curve has risen dramatically (especially the June bond). Cost of gov't inaction means more $ will now have to flow out when repayment is made. So much for keeping it internal.
