Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #stockmarkets

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It's rather baffling, why so many think that #recession of 2020 could be avoided.

Yes, the #Fed has cut rates aggressively and started to support the #stockmarkets and hedge-fund leverage, but it will not save the real #economy. 👇

#recession thread. 1/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
We first warned of the impending #recession in March 2019. Then, before the aggressive rate cuts and Not-QE, the timeline for its onset was Q1 2020.

In our recent forecast, the onset has been postponed between Q2 and Q3 due to the aggressive stimulus. 2/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/03/…
Why so little has changed in our forecast?

First, it should be noted that the #repo -panic of the #Fed was justified. It's evident that there are serious problems in the financial plumbing.

Without Fed's swift response, we'd be in recession already. 3/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
Read 19 tweets
A thread explaining, why we are likely to see some 'green shoots' concerning Sept./Oct. data, which are unlikely to last.

In Q3, China enacted record-breaking stimulus:
"Shadow banking posted the biggest quarterly increase since the Beige Book began." 1/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
And the likely reason for this? The 70th Anniversary of the People's Republic of China.

Chinese leaders (most likely) wanted the economy to 'stabilize' before the festivities. 2/
bbc.com/news/world-asi…
What can we expect China to do after?

Yes, there's going to be stimulus (there has been continuous stimulus since 2009), but crackdown against excessive lending continues, which is likely to curb lending and thus continue slowing global growth. 3/
amp.scmp.com/comment/insigh…
Read 8 tweets

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