Reports of Russian air strikes tonight on Turkish army positions (including, according to reports, a TSK HQ building and a military convoy) in Idlib province, SW of Aleppo. Last remaining territory not effectively under Syrian govt. control.
My thoughts pending more definitive reporting:
Turkey has been adept at minimizing Turkish Army (TSK) casualties in Syria, through the use of jihadist mercenaries (some of whom it's now injecting into Libya).
Turkey has been adept at minimizing Turkish Army (TSK) casualties in Syria, through the use of jihadist mercenaries (some of whom it's now injecting into Libya).
The purpose has been to suppress Turkish public's awareness of Turkey's intervention in Syria, and to avoid the backlash that might be precipitated by too many military funerals. Tonight, it appears the internet is down in Turkey, as is Twitter.
The Russian strikes, if the reporting is accurate, deliberately targeted TSK facilities and assets, not jihadist formations. This was a message to Turkey that it will not be able to hide behind the facade of the jihadists, and the Turkish public will, ultimately, know the score.
Turkey has had multiple strategic objectives in northern Syria, including (i) separating the Kurdish YPK from allied forces (PKK) over the Turkish-Syria border, and (ii) ethnically cleansing a 20-30 km buffer zone along the border, removing or at least dramatically reducing
the proportion of Kurdish people in that territory, replacing them with displaced persons from elsewhere in Syria, who are currently refugees in Turkey.
Confronted with the combined power of Russia and Assad, the ultimatums being issued tonight by Turkish Defense Minister and Akar and others, demanding Russia observe a ceasefire or face consequences by this weekend, are hollow.
Pres. Erdogan has stumbled into an escalating conflict, with no effective exit plan. He has little leverage over the Russians, or Assad. He will have to find some face saving way to climb down, and it will not be without cost in terms of his domestic political support. End.
