Thread by @weddady

The Assad regime & Iran's militia, in 9 years of war, NEVER experienced this level of destruction from the air.

The Assad regime is being bombarded from the air continuously, and guess what? No WW3 broke out. In fact, media is more focused on the Coronavirus than this. Of course, WW3 was never even a possibility, but it shows how powerful propaganda is.

So, What’s different now?

1- Russia knows it has to let Turkey have its day.. for now to preserve the relationship
2- The West wants no refugee flood, hence not hindering Turkey’s response
3- Assad & Iran militias deaths are a small price to keep the status quo

Catharsis: Don’t underestimate how powerful these images are across the Arab/Muslim world. For the first time since the beginning of the war, Assad & Iran’s proxies are getting a taste of their own medicine.

None of this means that the fundamnetal dynamic has changed, Russia will continue to foment the conflict as the conflict IS what gives Russia was it wants most: leverage & relevance.

Of course, the painful question on everyone’s mind - that is ppl who’ve been watching from the start - Why wasn’t this done in 2012?

the answer is simple: world powers weren’t willing nor interested in actually stopping Assad. That’s an eternal fact unchanged by years of spin.

I usually do my best to look at these things from a cold and detached angle - emotions get in the way of understanding. But today, these images can’t be understood without knowing the emotional load of 9 years.

Speaking of emotion, I am still dumbfounded that Putin/Assad war planners decided to target a Turkish army HQ with Turkish uniformed officers causing mass casualties. I’d love to understand what their calculus was, and what they thought the consequences would be.

A *likely* consequence of that fateful strike on Turkish troops is that a precedent was set where the Turks can now take off the gloves & use mass force against the regime within Idlib’s confines. No longer needing Moscow’s approval.

Whatever the course of the events, I don’t expect a dramatic change of the status quo, the Idlib faceoff is not going to go away overnight. The new thing is what concessions Putin will be willing to offer to calm down Turkey.

Also one last thing, ppl will do well to consider this: when it comes to Turkey’s national symbols - the army being one - there’s going to be very little internal divergence on the need to defend them. Erdogan or not, there are basics in Turkey that haven’t changed since 1923.

In addition to destroying at least 1 Assad fighter jet, the Turks seem to have also hit expensive hardware -- here a Pantsir anti-aircraft battery meant precisely to curtail Turkey's air response over Idlib.

The Pantsir system getting hit - really another round of the ever ongoing race between NATO hardware and Russian hardware - the Turks are sending a message that they're serious about weakening Assad in Idlib. They hit several regime military airports incl in Aleppo province

Now that the dust is settling in Idlib, It turns out that Moscow’s restraint was partly inability to deal with a new form of warfare. Often theorized, Turkey put to use the first mass-scale drone swarm attack offensive coupled with Nato-style mass electronic warfare.

Russia which prides itself on innovating in “hybrid warfare” may just had a taste of its own medicine in Idlib. Turkey got total control of the airspace over Idlib with.. drones and jamming. To my knowledge this is a first.