Thread by @DellAnnaLuca

THE MORTALITY RATE IS NOT THE PROBLEM
(for now; thread)

The number of deaths is a function of: the virus, demographics, number contacts with infected and medical attention.

The last two are subject to multiplicative dynamics.

1/N

How likely you are to catch a virus depends: your immune system, the contagiousness of the virus and how exposed you are.

It's evident that the more people get the virus, the more people will get it (and the more will die).

Moreover,

2/N

The more people get the virus, the more will have to go to the hospital. At the beginning, no big deal, they get top medical attention

But what happens if the healthcare system gets saturated?
- Less medical attention → more direct deaths & more deaths from unrelated conditions

An exercise: take the population of your city and divide it by the number of hospital beds in your city: that's the max percentage of the population that can get infected.

(about 1 in 6 infected visit the hospital and 1 in 6 beds are free on a normal day, so the two offset)

4/N

This is why social distancing actions have to begin early.
- They are just as costly than later on
- They are much more effective
- They help staggering the shock on the supply chain and healthcare system

5/N

The more we slow the spread down, the less the supply chain and healthcare systems we give for granted will be overwhelmed and the more we will be able to reduce the mortality of those that get infected.

6/N