Crucial piece of information in evaluating the number of cases in Italy (from 7h ago): many doctors in Codogno – the epicenter – are in quarantine waiting to be tested, test kits are few. They're not testing doctors in the epicenter even with fever/cough unless also dyspnea.
1/N
1/N
2/ The regional welfare administrator: doctors in Codogno followed the protocols from WHO & MoH prescribing testing only those who came back from China […]we're lucky patient 1 met someone who came back from China (who later tested negative) otherwise we'd have a later diagnosis
3/ … if he didn't have a friend who came back from China, he would have been treated for days as if he had a pneumonia, we would have diagnosed him much later, perhaps the number of contagions would have been 2x or 3x.
(from his interview, paraphrased for Twitter char limit)
(from his interview, paraphrased for Twitter char limit)
4/ This isn't a critique of the hospital – if test kits are limited, tradeoffs have to be made, and kits supply limits buying availability.
This is rather a note saying that the diagnostic net being cast is still very small, and more cases might surface as more people are tested
This is rather a note saying that the diagnostic net being cast is still very small, and more cases might surface as more people are tested
5/ I understand setting rules for the use of diagnostic kits if these are in limited supply (sigh).
I don't understand not limiting public gatherings or initiating other preventive measures before it's too late, because that's what you do when you cannot test during a pandemic.
I don't understand not limiting public gatherings or initiating other preventive measures before it's too late, because that's what you do when you cannot test during a pandemic.
6/ The most important question is: what are we learning out of it?
What are other countries learning from China?
What are other countries learning from Italy?
What systems are they putting in place *now* to avoid finding themselves in the same situation later?
What are other countries learning from China?
What are other countries learning from Italy?
What systems are they putting in place *now* to avoid finding themselves in the same situation later?
7/ The Lombardy president: "we followed the protocols from the government, we proposed to make more controls, the PM told us to trust him."
Of course it's too late now, the right time to over-react is before there is a need to.
Posting this not as a critique, but as a learning.
Of course it's too late now, the right time to over-react is before there is a need to.
Posting this not as a critique, but as a learning.
