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Fed fund futures are PLUNGING tonight. All down more than 10 bps (a huge move).

March is saying the effective rate will average 1.05% for March. It is currently 1.58%.

Only way that happens is the Fed cuts tomorrow morning.

(1/3)
Since Jan 2001, all inter-meeting Fed moves come between 60 to 30 minutes before the NYSE open.

The market expects them to cut tomorrow morning (s/b 50). Yields plunging (10-yr 1.03%!)

If they do not cut tomorrow morning, -13 S&P fut (opened -60) could quickly be -124.

(2/3)
Two full cuts (50bps) are now fully priced in.

Market expects this tomorrow morning.
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Cleaning up my previous tweets into one thread

About 30 minutes ago, Fed Chair Jay Powell released an unscheduled statement.

(1/4)
federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…

(Highlights)
* Fundamentals remain strong.

* Covid-19 poses evolving risks.

* Fed is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook.

* We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.

(2/4)
Jun 4, 19 speech Powell inserted a line to say the Fed would "act as appropriate." This was taken as a sign that the Fed would cut, and they did on Jul 31.

Using "act as appropriate" again means they WILL BE cutting by Mar 18.

Only question, 25 or 50.

(3/4)
Read 5 tweets
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
A tweet storm on the China Cov-19 statistics

Remember these are OFFICIAL numbers and definitions have been revised several times.

@MishGEA @ErikSTownsend @chrismartenson @RMKOutFront @ttmygh @alykhansatchu @jodigraphics15

(Please note the warning in the last tweet)

(1/7)
Total China is now at 77k.

Growth rate has flattened out. If it did not after 40 days of exponential growth, everyone on the planet will be infected 3 or 4 times.

I think the shape is right, no confidence on the level. 2x higher (160k)? 10x higher (800k)? Higher?

(2/7)
Here is the comparison of Covid-19 to SARS and the Swine Flu (again these are official statistics)

And Covid-19 is not done.

(3/7)
Read 7 tweets
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Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch
Tweet storm of the latest "Rest of World" infection charts.

All these charts are log scale, so any uptrend means exponential growth.

@MishGEA @ErikSTownsend @alykhansatchu @jodigraphics15 @chrismartenson @RMKOutFront @freezerohedge

(1/8)
The RoW w/Cruise Ship (blue), is approaching 2k. Without is bending higher (faster exponential growth) and near 1.3k.

Look at where these numbers were 10 to 20 days ago (how many doubles?) and wonder many more doubles are still to come in the next 20 days?

(2/8)
South Korea has been doubling daily. Now over 600.

See the table, it says they have tested over 17k and are testing over 8k now.

If just 5% of those 8k tests come back positive in the next day or two, that pushes this number over 1,000 Monday or Tuesday.

(3/8)
Read 8 tweets

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