Just how bad will the new coronavirus be?
There’s no sure answer to that question, but the debate has split into two camps: the growthers and the base-raters trib.al/UGJryye
There’s no sure answer to that question, but the debate has split into two camps: the growthers and the base-raters trib.al/UGJryye
Growthers refers to the notion of exponential growth.
📈 Indeed, the number of Covid-19 cases appears to be following an exponential pattern.
Scientists have estimated that the number of cases doubles about every seven days trib.al/UGJryye
📈 Indeed, the number of Covid-19 cases appears to be following an exponential pattern.
Scientists have estimated that the number of cases doubles about every seven days trib.al/UGJryye
That process of doubling won’t go on forever. Eventually survivors’ immunity will slow the spread.
But the growthers find it easy to imagine the number of cases overwhelming the U.S. health-care system trib.al/UGJryye
But the growthers find it easy to imagine the number of cases overwhelming the U.S. health-care system trib.al/UGJryye
Bill Gates is a growther: He recently suggested that Covid-19 may be the once-in-a-lifetime pathogen that experts have been worried about.
It’s a common view among analytical people who work a lot with numbers trib.al/UGJryye
It’s a common view among analytical people who work a lot with numbers trib.al/UGJryye
Those in Washington, however, tend to be base-raters who, instead of looking at mathematical models, ask themselves how often pandemics have happened before.
Historically, major pandemics have been rare trib.al/UGJryye
Historically, major pandemics have been rare trib.al/UGJryye
Base-raters believe that most of the world, most of the time, doesn’t change very quickly.
Yet base-rate thinking failed to predict the 2008 financial crisis, and the election of Donald Trump trib.al/UGJryye
Yet base-rate thinking failed to predict the 2008 financial crisis, and the election of Donald Trump trib.al/UGJryye
So which side of the debate do you fall on?
