So far, the case fatality rate for corona is 3.4%.
This could be an underestimate since some infected patients may yet die from it.
It could also be an overestimate since many mild cases have not been detected.
Let's all hope the second driver is more powerful than the first.
This could be an underestimate since some infected patients may yet die from it.
It could also be an overestimate since many mild cases have not been detected.
Let's all hope the second driver is more powerful than the first.
It seems very likely that under-detection is a more powerful driver of the current case fatality rate than patients who are diagnosed but have not yet died.
There's also hope that greater familiarity with corona will improve treatment outcomes.
But we can't be sure that's true.
There's also hope that greater familiarity with corona will improve treatment outcomes.
But we can't be sure that's true.
A few notes:
You get to the case fatality rate by dividing the total number of detected cases by the total number of deaths.
According to the WHO, that is:
China: 80,422 detected cases / 2,984 deaths.
Outside China: 12,668 detected cases / 214 deaths.
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
You get to the case fatality rate by dividing the total number of detected cases by the total number of deaths.
According to the WHO, that is:
China: 80,422 detected cases / 2,984 deaths.
Outside China: 12,668 detected cases / 214 deaths.
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
So far, the CFR outside China looks much better than inside China: "just" 1.7%.
Again, there's two possible explanations:
1) Worse detection, health care system, and population characteristics in China.
2) Disease more recent outside China so many patients at earlier stage.
Again, there's two possible explanations:
1) Worse detection, health care system, and population characteristics in China.
2) Disease more recent outside China so many patients at earlier stage.
Some estimates say the ratio of actual to detected cases in China is 1:20. That would be reassuring.
This graph worries me though. Few young people die from corona. Seems like good news. BUT if only severe cases were detected, you'd expect this distribution to be much flatter..?
This graph worries me though. Few young people die from corona. Seems like good news. BUT if only severe cases were detected, you'd expect this distribution to be much flatter..?
(Ugh. 20:1. Not 1:20. Obviously.)
