2- If they are retaliating because of Trump's sanctions on Nordstream, Rosneft Trading, and some Russian banks, they just gave Trump an unexpected lifeline: very low gasoline prices 
3- If they think Brent prices will remain in the $40s and they can cover any budget deficit from reserves, they will be shocked when a price war brings prices to the mid $20s. Ignoring reaction to their action is irrational. They also lost many friends today.
4- If they want to hurt shale, they can, but they still need OPEC+ since shale is only one player among many. Regardless, because of hedging, the damage is limited in the short run. They do not realize that what matters to private businesses under stress is operating costs.
5- Shale operating cost is between $18/b and $22/b. Prices have to go below that level to shut down the operation. can Russian companies expand at $20/b? Regardless, it is hard for public employees to understand how private business work
6- If it is about US LNG exports, They have no control of it bcs of HH pricing. Lower oil production will only lower associated gas production. Higher gas prices will bring more gas from massive plays like the Marcellus & the Haynesville, lowing prices & increasing LNG exports!
7- If it is to force Trump to lift sanctions on Rosneft Trading, Nord Stream, and others by pressuring shale, Trump doesn't give a damn about shale and its producers. He knows they will vote for him regardless because the alternative is worse.
8- If it is to show who is the boss, it is a pretty expensive policy. However, we will know when a price war starts who is the real boss in the #oil market.
9- the above arguments apply to Saudi Arabia and others if they do what Russia did today. It just happened that Russia did it and got the attention
10- Russia increased its foreign reserves significantly since 2016, supported by OPEC+ cuts that increased oil prices above $85 sometimes.
It is Ironic to see Russian officials bragging about the size of their reserves to prove that they do not need to cooperate with OPEC+
It is Ironic to see Russian officials bragging about the size of their reserves to prove that they do not need to cooperate with OPEC+
