Thread by @DWMcAliley1791

Check out the time stamp on when this story published... Shortly after midnight. Anyone else find that odd?

Like, were they given the info and told to sit on it till after midnight? Was that when the announcement was made? #COVID19 #SARScov2 #COVIDFL

apnews.com/d1a3d49e289447…

Also, in the story it says one patient was only confirmed after they died. Was this person under quarantine prior to their death? Had they been in isolation?

Let's hope so, but the story doesn't actually say...This raises a dark possibility, though. 2/n

For weeks now I have heard epidemiologists and doctors say that without widespread testing in areas where there is known/suspected comm. transmission, there's a decent chance that there are cases and deaths from this virus going unreported.

This seems to be direct evidence that this is happening.

I wonder, were there any deaths at the Kirkland Life Care Center prior to the first confirmed case, that were of this same kind of viral pneumonia?

If so, are there any samples to test to see if the virus was present?

It was that kind of back-testing that traced the epidemic in Wuhan to an apparently bed-ridden 70 year-old Chinese man, in a nursing home, of all places.

Last I checked they still weren't sure how the virus got into the facility to him, but that's where it amplified first.

Here's the story about that first patient...

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…

I mean the #SARScov2 virus came from a bat, so did the bat fly in there and give it to this guy in his bed?

Or was it possibly family or staff, meaning the real Patient Zero may never be found?

This looks eerily reminiscent of how the epidemic is beginning in WA state.

Isolated cases in a nursing home, with some staff involved, and evidence of community transmission outside that immediate area as well. Those were the initial stages of the Chinese epidemic too.

I think the window of opportunity for some US communities to act with social distancing and voluntary quarantines and be successful in stopping the chain of transmission is rapidly closing.

If we miss that opportunity, this virus could spread rapidly, especially in cities.

What we are seeing now, today, are cases that were exposed anywhere from 2 days to 2 weeks ago, some maybe even longer.

With incubation periods being anywhere from 2 to 24 days, official numbers could lag several generations of transmission behind actual infected. #COVID19NC

The same experts that weeks ago predicted we would begin to see evidence of community spread in the US (and were proven correct) are now saying if we don't act, and fast, to find and isolate cases this thing will continue to spiral upward nationally AND locally. #COVID19

If we allow numbers of symptomatic cases to rise high enough, it won't matter that the CFR is "relatively" low (depending on what it's relative to).

A small percentage of a VERY big number can still be a very big number. Especially when we're talking about lives. #COVID19

SARS-CoV2:

Attack rate on this virus is high (40-70%)

Incidence of serious disease is high (15%)

Incidence of critical disease is high (5%)

Apparent CFR is high (3.4% WHO)

Resolved CFR is high (5.7%)

We know all of these things for a fact. #COVID19 #SARScov2 #flu #Influenza

Influenza:

Attack rate: 5-10%

Serious illness (hospitalization): 2.19%

Apparent CFR: 0.125%

Death toll this year: 20-52k people.

The #SARScov2 virus is worse in every category except death toll. This is a function of time, not virulence. #COVID19
cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…

People keep comparing this to the common flu, and they shouldn't. The numbers for this virus are VERY different.

The only reason flu seems worse is because it has infected orders of magnitude more people.

If we allow #COVID19 to spread unchecked, this will change rapidly.