REPOST: Scientist at AHA webinar presented this "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #COVID19 for 2 months (using conservative numbers - eg doubling time can be ~6.2 days):
96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admits
480,000 deaths businessinsider.com/presentation-u…
96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admits
480,000 deaths businessinsider.com/presentation-u…
2) Contrast above with vs flu in 2018-2019 season... which is worse? Still believe it’s “just the flu?” #COVID19
35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths (source: cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…)
35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths (source: cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…)
3) And yes, the estimate above uses a conservative CFR estimate for mortality of just 0.5%, which is much lower than WHO’s 3.4% this week. Other experts peg the CFR is 1-2.5%. But the model also assumes no PH control measures to lower R to a smaller R(effective) value #COVID19
4) also doubling time can be reduced by PH measures. And unclear what the serial interval is in the model. Hence actual cases, 🏥 load, and deaths could be also likely be much much lower than the above estimate- there are many over aggressive assumptions made basically. #COVID19
5) The fact that companies are ordering work-from-home, big conventions are canceling like Seattle Comic Con and SXSW, lower sporting attendances, increased hand washing, sanitizing measures, etc all can lower the infection rates. So don’t fret. We can still beat this. #COVID19
