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There is a bizarre phenomenon in psychology where a negative stimulus like an electric shock can actually come to be a relief to the subject.

When a negative stimulus is regularly followed by a period where there are no shocks, the shock itself becomes a predictor of calm.

1/
The subject experiences the shock with a “Phew, no more electric shocks for a while.”

I have that conditioning with Bernie Bros.

They get all up in my shit when they are mad about something bad coming for Bernard - like primary losses...

2/
...and then they go dead silent when the event occurs.

At this point, swarms of Bernie trolls are a pleasant predictor for me. I actually enjoy them.

They tell me more than polls do - and they mean the next day is going to be blissfully quiet.

3/
Going to be a long night for Bernie as results pour in from Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, Washington, etc.

Going to be a quiet day in my mentions tomorrow.

Get it out of your system today, fellas. I’m sure it will totally help THIS TIME.

4/4
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The Hoarse Whisperer
@HoarseWisperer
The coronavirus is causing a demand crash. People are purchasing fewer goods and services.

You treat a demand crash by putting spending money in the pockets of people who will spend it. Poor and working class Americans.

You cannot cure a demand crisis by rewarding suppliers.
1/
If the problem is that people aren’t buying, it doesn’t help to prop up the people who do the selling.

We have an economic crisis forming which can only be best treated by pumping money into the pockets of the people Republicans loathe helping.

2/
Trump looted the treasury to further enrich the already rich.

He used up much of the federal government’s stimulus gunpowder on taking money OUT of the economy.

The rich park their money. The poor spend it.

3/
Read 6 tweets
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The Hoarse Whisperer
@HoarseWisperer
Out with my son. Sent him into a candy store with a couple bucks.

Comes back and tells me he had been a little short, thought the owner had said “It’s okay.” and turned to leave.

Owner accused him of trying to steal something and told him to not come back.

1/
So I go in all friendly-like...

Explain to the guy that it had been my son who had just run in while I waited outside and there had been a misunderstanding.

Guy acts like a dick. So, I walk out frustrated.

2/
Son: What happened?

Me: The guy was just a jerk.

Son: Whatever. I’m sure kids try to steal from him.

Me: No, it’s not over. I have a plan.

Son: What are you going to do?

Me: First I have to get my hands on 100,000 Africanized honeybees and see if they have a mail slot.
Read 4 tweets
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The Hoarse Whisperer
@HoarseWisperer
That was the least objectionable speech I’ve heard from Sanders this election cycle.
Don’t get me wrong. It was still littered with narcissism.

- The people who like me are more important the people who don’t
- The people voting against me are doing so for illegitimate reasons
- I control the conversation
- I must agree I deserve to lose before I accept it
It was just better than his 2016 version:

“Since you didn’t elect me mayor, I will burn down your stupid, corrupt village.”
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Dr. Petra Marquardt-Bigman
@WarpedMirrorPMB
#bizarre is one way to describe @hrw & @OmarSShakir's latest -- brazen is another one. Let's have a look at Hafez Omar, whom HRW &Shakir describe as a peaceful “artist”.
They even helpfully link to his art that glorifies terrorism &violence (see screenshots to follow)
"Peaceful Palestinian artist" according to @hrw @OmarSShakir
palestineposterproject.org/poster/bridge-…
"Peaceful Palestinian artist" according to @hrw @OmarSShakir
Note that this is in the artist's collection for International Women's Day -- I guess it shows the back of a woman with a braid tied with the Palestinian flag, with a gun over her shoulder
palestineposterproject.org/poster/palesti…
Read 8 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
#Actually, Hispanics* are a pretty huge part of the story about how Texas has become more purple and it's weird that I'm seeing punditry to the contrary!

* Asian and "other" or mixed-race voters also an important part of the story, but we'll leave that aside for now.
Here's a comparison between 2004 (Bush/Kerry) and 2018 (Cruz/Beto). Democrats gained ground among both whites *and* Hispanics, but the gains among Hispanics are larger.

Whites: R+ 49 (2004); R+32 (2018)
Hispanics: D+1 (2004) D +29 (2018)
Meanwhile, Hispanics have grown from 20% of the electorate in 2004 to 26% in 2018. They're still underperforming in comparison to their share of the voting-eligible population, but that's helped Democrats too.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
#Actually, moderate Democrats seem to be more popular with general election voters after all. 53eig.ht/30HJdqf
Bernie's polling is decent, but that he does the 2nd-best against Trump (after Biden) is partly an artifact of name recognition. For instance, Buttigieg polls worse than Bernie vs. Trump. But Buttigieg actually has better favorables than Bernie among voters who know who he is.
It's certainly a messy relationship. Some liberals, including Bernie, have decent (though not great) polling. Some moderates don't. But favorability ratings, which allow voters to say they don't recognize a candidate, are a better way to assess this stuff than head-to-head polls.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
#Actually, early presidential primary polls are fairly predictive. 53eig.ht/2PtbSd7
You have to adjust for name recognition, though. Biden, at just south of 30 percent, is still something like a 2:1 underdog. And Bernie's position at 20 percent, as I wrote yesterday, is tenable but not great.
Per the chart above, Buttigieg's position is roughly as good as Bernie's on a "polls only" basis, or maybe a bit better. Empirically, you'd slightly prefer to be polling at ~10% with low name recognition than ~20% with high name recognition.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
#Actually, the chart actually shows clear evidence of the beer-wine frontier, with certain types of sprits (e.g. scotch, brandy/cognac) straddling the frontier. 🍺🍷
A few highbrow beers (although there's nothing *truly* highbrow on here) creep over into wineland, but that's sort of what you'd expect.
👏 WINE 👏 TRACK 👏 BEER 👏 TRACK 👏 HAS 👏 BEEN 👏 SCIENTIFICALLY 👏 VALIDATED 👏
Read 3 tweets
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Farooq Kperogi, Ph.D
@farooqkperogi
Atiku’s Fiercest Foe Isn’t Buhari; It’s the INEC Chairman--THREAD

The auguries already favor a decisive win Atiku win in the forthcoming February 16 election, and the biggest electoral shock may actually come from the northwest, hitherto Buhari’s impregnable electoral fortress.
The silent majority of voters in the region will ventilate their pent-up anger and frustration against Buhari in ways that will signal a tectonic disruption of the habitual voting patterns of the region. At this point, Buhari isn’t a threat to Atiku. INEC Chairman Professor
Mahmood Yakubu is actually Atiku’s most potent threat now. Here is why. A brother of the INEC chairman’s close friend confided in me today that the electoral boss has a deep-seated animus toward Atiku and has made many nasty, unkind remarks about Atiku in private. That, in and of
Read 12 tweets

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