Thread by @lewis_goodall

Here we go #budget2020:

Chancellor gets straight to it.

Sunak: "I want to get straight to the issue on everybody's mind. Coronavirus/Covid-19."

This is essentially a virus budget.

Sunak: "We will get through this- together. The British people may be worried but not daunted. We will protect our people. We will rise to this challenge."

Sunak: "But Corona is not the only challenge. We just had a general election where people voted for change...this budget delivers on the change." Says it delivers on a desire for change to Britain's economic geography.

Sunak says public finances in good health.

Hmm. Deficit is down (but still not in surplus as promised)

National debt is enormous.

Sunak says "productive capacity will shrink"

In other words, we'll end up in recession.

Also says there will be hit to demand.

This is the most sober House for a Budget I can remember. Very little noise on either side.

Sunak outlines three point plan

1.) NHS "to get whatever it needs"

2.) Safety net "to remain strong enough to fall back on" if people fall ill.

SSR will be available for all those who don't have symptoms. Can get sick note from 111.

Easier to get benefits for those self-employed

More relaxed requirement to access universal credit

Some of this stuff on benefits and job centres had been announced before.

BIG MEASURE: For small businesses (employees up to 250) govt will effectively pay for the SSR of their workers.

Deficit is definitely going up this year...

Sunak says: Safety net "to remain strong enough to fall back on"

Problem is, as things stand, even without corona, that safety net is already very patchy.

BIGGER MEASURE: for many businesses with a rateable value £51000 they won't need to pay business rates

Over next 12 months over half of businesses in England won't pay business rate

This is going to get very expensive

Then small direct cash injection for small businsesses

This is a budget drowning in red ink

Sunak says budget is £30bn stimulus. big.

Shows how worried the Treasury is

For context, in 2008, Alistair Darling unveiled a stimulus of £20bn

At the time, George Osborne said the budget showed the “time-old truth that in the end all Labour chancellors run out of money”.

Rishi Sunak: arch-Keynesian.

So we've got £30bn on counter corona measures alone. Now we're onto other measures.

Sunak says govt is meeting the fiscal rules this year and for the rest of the Parliament...will be interesting to see detail of that...

Ah ok- that explains it. Sunak is meeting fiscal rules because OBR hasn't factored in Coronavirus spending!

Ok now we're onto the politics

Sunak says he's met the fiscal rules but OBR hasn't accounted for coronaspending because of speed of measures

Which might be fair enough but a bit like me saying I'm not in debt, apart from my mortgage

Sunak says now we've left the EU he can abolish the tampon tax from next year.

DUTIES

Spirits: planned increase in spirits duty cancelled
Beer: planned duty rise cancelled
Wine/Cider: frozen
Fuel: frozen

Business rate relief for pubs increased

Even easy revenue raising measures are being rejected. Fuel duty not increased. Entrepreneur relief (widely trailed for a hammering) largely being spared.

Imagine being Corbyn having to respond to this. Nearly every major tenet of Conservative political and economic framing for a decade (and every bit of Labour thinking in response) out of the window. What do you do?

Notable that so far beyond somewhat nebulous pledge of NHS getting "whatever it means" there isn't much detail on practicalities of how the state responds to corona, just on economic mitigation...

Interesting to imagine what the reaction in the press/markets would have been if John McDonnell (or indeed any Labour chancellor) had delivered this budget.

A303 CLAXON

Been a bad week on the markets. But stocks in Rishi Sunak are rising.

Sunak gets decent joke in at McDonnell's expense about his "fantasy" economics

Wonder who the joke is really on, though. Conservatives haven't exactly followed McDonnell's economic thinking. But the economic direction of travel is clear. And it's been towards Labour.

Corporation tax cut shelved, as per Tory manifesto.

This is turning into a LONG budget. Essentially two budgets. What he was planning to deliver, with corona stuff on top.

If someone had been in a coma since 2010 and you showed them this budget and one of Osborne's, you wouldn't think they were from the same party.