Thread by @atatimelikethis

The Budget Summary.
So were the predictions right?
In what he said yes, vanilla not 🅁🄸🅂🄺🅈.

But the omissions? wow
if this were business, he'd go to jail

Here are the things your 75% offshore owned tax haven press won't be writing
Warning *Very Long Thread*
#Budgetlies

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1236810167611785219

1. Tampons. This was the one where the pub shouted in unison "You Idiots. we're in transition".

You spend years on the EU tampon hater VAT lie.
Then you forget that you can't do this until 2021
Unless the EU isn't the reason

Don't worry Risky, 75% Press will bury it for you

2. Global Levelling up the UK
We must find new trade, business must evolve. We need innovation
So Risky removes entrepreneur incentives
entrepreneurs now fund corporations. WTF

For me this bursts the ERG cover story, they'd fight it otherwise. It's utterly nuts and incompatible.

3. Floods - ex Brexit this is one of the more perverse delusions.

He's done headlines but has done nothing for the underlying causes, or you'd have heard these words

"FloodRe", drainabe, farming.

I'll do a separate thread on this when i can figure out if it's stupid or evil.

4. The economy.
Just so you know, this is potential fake news territory - not my fault. UK Gov is currently suppressing more economic outlook data than I have ever seen it do. That means speculation, and that comes with accusation.

So you got the caveat? I'll try to simplify

TLDR If politics were business, your chancellor would just have broken sections 2, 3 and 11 and maybe 4 of the 2006 Fraud Act. I make that about 50 years of jail time.

a) he removed costs of brexit EU fees, without in large part incurring costs for UK replacements

4b) Some of those costs are enormous, crucial for brexit strategy and much-promised including regional development and research/innovation.
And he added line items for many. So, how can I say he hasn't incurred costs?

4c) and 4d) explain

4c) "Brexit uplands have solved austerity"
Then budget is pre-austerity % of GDP.
Not exactly, but ok, let's say it is and swallow the risky labour budget lie -

Suckers - that's the trap

it's worse. He's used EU gross budget to hide austerity with net investment, more in 4e

4d) "Brexit has no downsides, only upsides"
Surely if anything is now dead it's that sort of bollocks (david davis?) Even if the public doesn't know, UKGov do - hence the EU/US FTA financials.

But he's counted the EU fees going, without counting the Trade revenue going? whoops?

4 e) you see now the Fraud act issue I hope.

I take out fee investment and give it away twice
1 to fund "austerity cost gap"
2 to fund "EU invest gap"

Ok I can't do that. But then I keep the ROI line in revenue, without the investment.

And declare a profit.

Heard of Enron?

it's a bit more complex than that - there is additional borrowing to cover some of the problems, but not enough. and of course, there shouldn't be borrowing because of brexit sunlit uplands.

But that takes spreadsheets and is not simple

And I haven't got to the worst bit...

Because of course revenues have to go up. Because our deals will be better than EU.

Truth is, they're not going up compared to older forecasts but let's give Boris and Risky a pass on even that - let's allow them a flat to normalised budget

All brexit has to do is not be worse.

They are absolutely screwed and no spin can solve it.

why?

We know already, heck we knew before we did it, that all the bilateral FTAs will be worse. Canada said it to our face, and of all papers, even the Express reported it as a disaster.

but there's more...

That all assumes the FTAs land together, on the same day. In fact on January 1 2021.

Given what we know already about those negotiations, that is already ludicrous. Now we have a cash flow crisis, are we going to borrow more? so where's that number?

but there's more...

Boris is still waving his No Deal Johnson around.
So if he pulled the trigger that's even more cash flow loss before replacement FTAs come in.

And whoops No Deal EU trade losses?

This budget can't handle that without Argentina default levels. Proper burn country stuff.

5. Anything else?
Whole bunch of other double counts and magic unsourced money pots - doubtless the 75% press will cover any not brexit related, tho they seem so insignificant compared to the above.

And that btw is a very non-accounting thought, which should worry you too.

6. What's Next?

Some speculation

The comments from Theresa May suggest it's a real work of fiction with terminal outcomes - a former PM, certainly not a robot, would never go that far so quickly - to paraphrase

"I empathise,
I've been there,
BUT ARE YOU MESSED UP IN THE HEAD"

Then there is a logic tree I've been bouncing around. But the conclusions are difficult at best

Outcomes
1. We are just wrong. There is a huge Brexit advantage and we've all missed it. A little bit annoying, but if the country is better off, I'll be happy to be ashamed

2. We're mostly or completely right.
Then you have to ask WTF are UK Gov up to

a) negotiating - doubtful, EU does the analysis, are informed on trade realities. bluffing makes us weaker

b) cunning - there were scenarios, eg. EU/US beauty parade - but No Deal killed them all

c) incompetent? - we really don't know what we're doing and it's headless chickens?

d) lazy - chill man, it'll all work out. it's all in the positioning. Dom does PowerPoint super skillz

e) deluded - we think there's a magic upside but just haven't done the maths - see c and d

f) terrified - we're at 1, we know it, we know we're buggered and so we just keep treading water hoping for a ship

g) corrupted - I'm not going to fuel the conspiracy theorists with all the options, there are many.

h) revolutionaries - pick your ideology and Secret Police

i) a combination of (a-f)

I'm no fan of g/h, they are seductive, and they're like Aliens in Astronomy - if that's the reason it shuts down rational evaluation of all others.

They're listed coz Sherlock Holmes needs logic trees to include the impossible to find the improbable.

So we take the impossible out.

Not good.

It's really hard to find a way for almost anything but g or h to survive.

Theresa May was easier - she saw the dilemma and showed understanding of the minefield. Her solutions might have killed soldiers, but at least she saw mines

With Johnson, you have none of that
It's later so we all have much more reality of dealing with Brexit.
You can bullshit less because of that reality
You have lots of real evidence e.g. Canada saying if we're stupid enough to threaten no deal, then they'll take advantage

Let's play that out to show the point.

Just for fun say it is c - complete bumbling idiot.

Well, ok, but Tories are sharks. Economic implosion in 6 months killing tories will force a 1922 vote, and even Brexit isn't worth that. we'd be back in quicker than you can say Norway

Yes, you can then make assumptions on assumptions.

e.g. all backbenchers are spineless, clueless cultists and all the grandees are basically marginalised.

So tories will end up in oblivion in a haze of Purple Brexit

it's weak, and it ignores MP attachment to seats.

Which is why, on the argument that it's never g or h until it is, my personal opinion is

...Drumroll...

f) Terrified (no i didn't cheat - read back. [almost] anything)

Call Terrified playing for time if you want, or any other euphemism

It's the only one that fits the facts. But now I'm terrified because i'm treading water & for reasons explained at length here previously there are only 3 ships.

The EU, The US and China

People often think I'm terrified to join with US
Actually, I'm terrified that we cannot

The reasons have been explained endlessly on multiple threads such as this one so if you want to challenge go look at them.

TLDR?
Politicians are SHOCKINGLY CRAP at business. They write rhetoric faster than businesses can find new customers and contracts

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1186561525575757824?s=20

Hotel California - leave EU! Promise US FTA!
If your businesses are still in EU all you did was turn us into a vassal state.

did i say a?

2 vassal states, EU and US

Any idea how long it takes to shift 75% of beef exports to from EU?

Sixtus, "is dat ur doo doo daddy make"?

I can feel the objections already, but I'll resist answering them and point you back to the threads where they are already answered.

I'm terrified because the solution the Brexiters have, even if everything else was a lie and even if it's all corruption. That solution is broken

And you know what, my first emotional response isn't recrimination, trials, truth and justice.
I actually do love my country -

So what I think is how the hell do we get out of this mess?

We have only one solution - it's been proposed in 3 threads...now 4, in a lot of detail

If you want to look it up, it's called

"Return to the Common Market".
As it should have been, Economics without Politics
Churchill would have loved it.
And Boris could sell it.

It's a work of fiction and an analogy, but it's vastly more workable than anything they have

That's it, is this the longest thread here?
Comments are loved and appreciated, even if you can't find your tongue, you're so angry with my remoaniac fear-mongering.

If they don't do something soon tho, it's Nigel lawson bum out to France time. Cept I'm not a hypocrite 😁😉

Reading back. Not the finance term, punny, "With an outcome that would be terminal for our country"

Financially it could be, "a work of fiction with no terminal outcomes" but that's the kinda geek pun you only pull off with the Quants. And only on Slack, with misogyny. Don't.

PS.
The magic obvious solutions that I missed coz I'm a stupid Remoaner?

1. FreePorts
Sorry, like sunlit uplands but even larger amounts of nonsense.

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1237997706758496256?s=19