(1/11) The #NYC Region is in trouble. Our #COVID19 case load is growing so quickly that we risk running out of hospital beds in UNDER TWO WEEKS. To avoid a crisis at our hospitals, we need to act now. 1,200 hospital beds are not enough. @BilldeBlasio @NYCSpeakerCoJo @NYGovCuomo 
(2/11) @BilldeBlasio says we have ONLY 1,200 beds for #COVID19. (1010wins.radio.com/articles/de-bl…) At this rate, we could see over half a million severely sick people at once. There’s no way the NYC hospitals can handle that influx. The ill who can’t get care will die at higher rates.
(3/11) In more than 97% of model runs, NYC runs out of hospital capacity under current policies. To see how this model works, take a look at my note for a full explanation of what’s going on with #COVID19 and how I calculate these forecasts. medium.com/@donnellymjd/n…
(4/11) The quick version of the math is this: Currently there are approximately 200 reported cases of #COVID19 in the NYC metro region…
(5/11) Due to undetected asymptomatic cases (17%-30%) and a low testing rate, we may only be detecting between 18.5%-33% of cases. The real number of current infections in NYC Metro is likely to be between 600 and 1,200 cases.
(6/11) Since each person that has #COVID19 tends to spread it to about 2.3 (r0) new people every 5 days, we can estimate the range of NYC cases in 10 days from now. Roughly between 9k and 16k cases by Mar. 21. By April, we could be looking at more than 100k cases in NYC.
(7/11) Research in China shows the severe case rate for #COVID19 is approximately 16%. (nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…) We can hope that estimate is overstated due to nondetection of cases, we can use a 10% estimate. Meaning by Mar. 22, 3k-6k people will need hospital care in NYC.
(8/11) We only have 1.2k beds. We will be out of beds by the end of March if we don’t act now.
(9/11) There are only 2 models that seem to work to contain #COVID19. (1) Either test everyone and contain those who test positive like South Korea and Singapore. Unfortunately, we don’t have enough tests for that. Or (2) close down the city like Italy and China. We can do this.
(10/11) Theaters, bars, concerts, and other major public gathering sites will have to be closed. School & subways could stay open with restrictions. Otherwise everyone else should shelter in place. If we don’t, expect to see tens of thousands of deaths from #COVID19 in April.
(11/11) This can’t possibly be a choice anymore. @NYCSpeakerCoJo has been leading NYC on aggressive responses but we need more. We do not want to end up like Italy. @BilldeBlasio and @NYGovCuomo need to take action on #COVID19 today.
