THREAD: I believe Boris Johnson's strategy on #COVID_19uk is fundamentally flawed & at odds with available scientific data. I'm NOT an epidemiologist, but I am a complex systems analyst specialising in societal collapse risks. This is why I'm concerned /1 medium.com/insurge-intell…
People should NOT panic, but they should take as much precautionary mutual-collective action as possible to avert a potential worst-case scenario. The govt's failure to facilitate this will be disastrous - in my opinion. This is why I hold that opinion /2 medium.com/insurge-intell…
The govt claims that early large-scale action is unnecessary and could be counterproductive. Yet numerous epidemiological studies show that early social distancing intervention is the best way to reduce and limit deaths and the epidemic size /3 medium.com/insurge-intell…
The govt wants to balance this against socio-psychological costs of long term social distancing. As @richardhorton1 has said, understandable, but the longer we delay action, the more infection will spread, higher the burden on NHS, higher deaths /4 medium.com/insurge-intell…
The choice is NOT between Wuhan style draconian lock downs and virtually nothing at all. Studies *do* show efficacy of early school closures, preventing large gatherings, etc. The more we do early on now, the better - averting an Italy-style crisis /5 medium.com/insurge-intell…
Many things govt describes as 'evidenced by the science' are either demonstrably not scientific at all, or highly contested. This is not my opinion, this is verifiable by simply looking at the facts. Here are some examples: /6
UK Govt says it plans to 'delay' #COVID_19uk peak to summer to reduce burden on NHS. Yet scientific evidence shows without stronger social distancing measures, this is impossible: *The govt claims to be in 'delay' without any meaningful delay measures* /7 medium.com/insurge-intell…
UK Govt says it wants #COVID_19uk to 'slowly' pass through population to generate 'herd immunity'. But it won't pass slowly without stronger social distancing. And 'herd immunity' would basically mean majority getting it, and higher fatalities. /8 eg wired.co.uk/article/herd-i…
UK Govt worst-case planning scenario with local authorities claims that 80% of Brits would get virus, leading to max 100,000 deaths. But this supposed scenario completely at odds with the epidemiological data on a fatality rate of between 1 and 3.4% /9 medium.com/insurge-intell…
UK Govt claims that #COVID_19uk will inevitably resurge after lifting of stronger social distancing. This seems likely, but the point is not just to try stop spread, but to slow the contagion to maintain functionality of healthcare facilities /10 medium.com/insurge-intell…
UK Govt claims that school closures now will reduce manpower at healthcare facilities as staff stay at home for kids. This is topsy-turvy. Studies show that early school closures can significantly slow spread and reduce peak deaths by 50% /11 medium.com/insurge-intell…
UK Govt claims people will 'fatigue' too early w/stronger social distancing measures. What is scientific basis for this? It's an assumption. If people confused now it's because of utter failure of govt educating and communicating properly on #COVID_19uk medium.com/insurge-intell…
UK Govt says it's waiting to 'time' further stronger social distancing responses when they will work. But the science suggests this is likely to result in continued rapid spread, and higher fatality rates, rather than pushing 'peak' out further. /13 medium.com/insurge-intell…
UK Govt is abandoning #COVID_19uk testing. This makes it impossible to keep track of rising case numbers - fundamentally at odds with the scientific demand for solid data, and creates total lack of transparency on infection trend. /14 medium.com/insurge-intell…
UK Govt ‘herd immunity’ ambition has one giant gaping hole in it. There is as yet NO scientific evidence that acquiring the #coronavirus makes you immune; and there IS evidence of reinfection in some recovered patients businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavi… /15
Consider UK govt 'herd immunity' strategy against Prof Samuel McConkey, who “already expected that [#Covid_19] would reinfect people because that is what happens with the previous coronaviruses”. /16 irishtimes.com/news/ireland/i… 
Vindicating my critique medium.com/insurge-intell… University of Kent virologist Dr Jeremy Rossman warns proposed 'herd immunity' strategy could lead to deaths of over "a million people with a further 8 million severe infections requiring critical care." /17 theconversation.com/coronavirus-ca…
