THREAD: Coronavirus, synchronous failure and the global phase-shift. Breaking this down into the key points. medium.com/insurge-intell… Key theme is that it's human systems that will determine major social outcomes from the novel #coronavirus /1
Vast majority who get the #coronavirus will be fine. BUT: we don't know true fatality rate yet, but appears at least 10 times worse than ordinary flu - could be several times worse. People who are older, ill and critically ill are more at risk. medium.com/insurge-intell… /2
Infection rate is probably higher than originally believed. Studies suggest at least half, if not more, of infected travellers being screened were not being detected. This fits with some evidence of the risk of asymptomatic spread during incubation medium.com/insurge-intell… /3
Scientists are still trying to work out the R0 (reproduction number - how many peeps, an infected person infects). Figures range between 2 and 6, with data converging toward 3, but we still don't know for sure yet. The R0 drives the rate of infection medium.com/insurge-intell… /4
Data suggests due to these factors #coronavirus has circulated in communities for several weeks. Number of infected always tracks much lower than confirmed cases. e.g. early confirmed Washington cases (then 39ish) indicated up to 1,500 already infected medium.com/insurge-intell… /5
Without containment/delay, simple thought experiments indicate #coronavirus could spread to 50% of population in US, 80% in UK. This is DEFINITELY INACCURATE, real rate slower, and can be slowed further. But: we will see exponential growth over months medium.com/insurge-intell… /6
This wave of growth is unavoidable (and was long before UK chief med officer admitted this week). So: Collective efforts to delay by voluntary social distancing will really help, and take pressure of the state/other institutions to react belatedly. medium.com/insurge-intell… /7
Novel #Coronavirus is here to stay for at least next 6 months, probably longer, possibly permanently. We will need to work together to learn to adapt for the long haul. We need, each of us, to especially look out for the more vulnerable among us. medium.com/insurge-intell… /8
#COVIDー19 has hit the global system at a point when its economic-ecological vulnerability is extremely high. It will destabilise many sub-systems and increase risk of 'synchronous failure' (when multiple systems fail). medium.com/insurge-intell… /9
But #COVIDー19 by the same token is ushering in new efforts to adapt across science, business, technology culture, supply-chains which could create more resilient societies, embedded in stronger localised communities. medium.com/insurge-intell… /10
Biggest learning point for us: #COVIDー19 is symptomatic of relentless industrial expansion, hitting multiple planetary boundaries across landuse, mining, deforestation, climate change, and beyond. medium.com/insurge-intell… This is a massive wake-up call. We need to change /11
Scientists have warned of inevitability of pandemic because they knew that as global industrial endless growth hits ecological limits, as humans ride roughshod over wildlife, we exponentially increase risk of animal viruses jumping to humans medium.com/insurge-intell… /12
Beyond the immediate necessity to buckle down, the #coronavirus crisis tells us we need to look to adapting and changing how our societies relate with the planet in fundamental ways. Yes, it's scary. But it's also a wake up call, and an opportunity. medium.com/insurge-intell… /13
Global industrial civilization is in the last stage of its systemic life cycle. At this stage, there is huge opportunity for seemingly tiny actions to make a big impact. This is 'phase-shift' to a new life cycle, which we could 'co-create' together medium.com/insurge-intell… /14
What #COVIDー19 ultimately tells us is that the industrial system which created this crisis (a taste of pandemics to come) is in accelerating decline. Another system is waiting in the wings, emergent. No time for pessimism. We can seize the moment. medium.com/insurge-intell… /10
