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How does mathematical modelling analysis feed into UK government COVID-19 policy? You've probably heard of Cobra, chaired by the PM, but there are two other steps worth knowing about... 1/
The Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Medical Officer take advice from a specially convened Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which includes experts on the emergency involved (in this case COVID-19) 2/
SAGE are in turn advised by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), which includes representatives from leading modelling groups. This currently includes Exeter, Bristol, Imperial, LSHTM, Warwick, Cambridge, Manchester, Lancaster, Strathclyde & Edinburgh 3/
It's worth emphasising that government decisions almost never rely on a single model/paper. The aim of SPI-M is to provide multiple models/scenarios to create as solid an evidence base as possible for very tough decisions. Here are some examples of relevant work by members... 4/
University of Cambridge:
journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/a…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK45895…
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
5/
Imperial College London:
imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16642006
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19433588
6/
LSHTM (full disclosure: this includes our group):
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
thelancet.com/journals/langl…
7/
Public Health England:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
8/
Warwick:
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
pnas.org/content/107/19…
9/
And here is SPI-M report on pandemic planning that describes evidence base for many measures, including school closures, airport screening, travel restrictions, social distancing (note these are for flu, so are now being updated for COVID-19) gov.uk/government/pub… 10/10
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More from @AdamJKucharski see all

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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
Lots of people are now getting interested in infectious disease epidemiology (which is great), but I wanted to do a quick thread on some common mistakes/misunderstandings to watch out for if you're new to these sorts of datasets/questions... 1/
Epi often involves calculating proportions. But make sure the values on the top and bottom of the fraction are being compared in a sensible way. A good example is fatality risk - often people aren't comparing what they think they're comparing...
2/
The most reliable studies often follow people over time (i.e. prospective), but in real-time we may only have backward-looking studies (i.e. retrospective). Look at differences in this contact-based prospective data and symptom-based retrospective data medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
There's a reason we ask students to do lit reviews, rather than wade into field without evidence base. There are many contact tracing studies out there, which give insight into why hasn't worked well so far for COVID in Europe/US:pnas.org/content/101/16…
thelancet.com/journals/langl… 1/
Also, the Imperial model is individual-based with contact-specific interactions, not 'SIR differential equations' as critics claim. There's plenty to debate about model assumptions, but it's bizarre to see such strong critique of paper people apparently haven't read methods of 2/
We need innovation/improvement to implement large-scale effective isolation/contact tracing globally, but it will be harder than writing a one pager on 'obvious' solution. Here are some more refs...
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 3/3
Read 3 tweets
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
If you're in UK, now is good time to sign up for flusurvey.net, which was set up during 2009 flu pandemic to track community illness. It's easy to fill out each week, and provides valuable data on milder infections. Here are some insights it's previously produced... 1/
Factors that lead to increased risk of influenza-like illness, which include contact with children, being aged between 35 and 64, and being a smoker (but not use of public transport) bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11… 2/
Estimation of the underlying level of disease during the 2009 influenza epidemic, which made it possible to get a refined estimate of fatality risk bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11… 3/
Read 5 tweets

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Anthony Costello
@globalhlthtwit
My longish thread on the Academy of Medical Science News Briefing with Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Chris Whitty last night, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Global Health Lab chaired by Richard Horton and Prof Martin McKee. panopto.lshtm.ac.uk/Panopto/Pages/… (1)
The News briefing. Medics/scientists are used to robust debate. It should not descend into personal abuse. For example, I’m happy to be told I’m ‘utterly wrong’ and to debate about strategies. Debate is the essence of evaluation and finding a way forward. But no abuse.(2)
Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance have an unenviable job, as do the 20 or so members of the SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group of Experts). They welcome debate and robust argument. They face extremely complex issues and difficult decisions. We must help them (3)
Read 25 tweets
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Paul Nuki
@PaulNuki
IMPORTANT. Here is the modelling behind the UK Govs #covidー19uk strategy.

Big choice ahead: 1/Mitigation: 250k deaths, or 2/Suppression: 20k deaths but with a lockdown that ends only once a vax or treatment found.

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
Both strategies have much the same mix of measures, all of which were announced tonight by the PM. The big difference is they are not lifted in the suppression option. My guess is government will now play it by ear - how long can Britain change its behaviour for
The hard fact driving these hard choices is NHS surge capacity. Remember that lovely 'flatten the curve' graphic the Economist put round with health capacity as a horizontal line across the middle? Well, it was right except in UK that line is at the bottom. Here's the real thing:
Read 7 tweets
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Hazel Hayes
@TheHazelHayes
Here’s the thing. Years and years of fake news and sensationalist journalism and people panicking over dumb shit on Twitter made me think everyone was overreacting about Coronavirus and that I just needed to be cautious and sensible when going out. Unfortunately, I was wrong.
Living in the UK, where nothing was being done about it, reinforced my belief that it wasn’t a big deal. But I’ve since remembered that the UK government are absolute idiots, so that argument doesn’t work anymore. I mean we’re talking about Boris fucking Johnson here.
Also, as someone with anxiety, I have to filter the news a little bit, and take it in small doses and with a large pinch of salt. So I don’t have a ton of news apps on my phone and wasn’t seeing the full extent of the crisis elsewhere. However, I was quietly keeping an eye on it.
Read 18 tweets
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Joel Benjamin
@Gian_TCatt
Western Government's lax attitudes to public health & safety, as a secondary consideration to market integrity is being brutally exposed by effectiveness of response in Asia #COVIDー19 #CoronavirusOutbreak #Korea
Look at the trend of #Coronavirus spread in S Korea (everyone with symptoms gets #Covid19 testing) vs UK where only the v sick, footballers, CEOs & MPs get tested.
Containing #coronavirus: the lessons from Asia ft.com/content/e015e0… #COVID_19UK
Read 6 tweets
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Elizabeth Arif-Fear
@Voice_of_Salam
THREAD 1. Philip Rosenberg – Director of Public Relations at @BoardofDeputies talking on Argentinian radio re. #antisemitism and #Jewish-#Muslim relations in #UK and #France.
2. #antisemitism is growing in the UK - Incidents in the UK are increasing each year, especially on social media but antisemitism in #France is different re. violence. It’s much more violent in #France than in the #UK.
3. Origin of antisemitism in the UK – generally related to extreme anti-zionism, also old antisemitic tropes re. control and banking unrelated to Israel are also present and used in relation to Israel.
Read 12 tweets
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
#UK Foreign Secretary @BorisJohnson has resigned, according to @10DowningStreet.
"His replacement will be announced shortly," @10DowningStreet spokesman says.
More on the @BorisJohnson resignation:
Read 15 tweets

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