The Friday panic low of 8472 could very well be the bottom of the Nifty for a long time.
The spread of COVID19 and panic because of that will continue to haunt us for some more time, but there is a possibility that the markets will not react as it has been for some time.
Nifty may consolidate between 9600-10300 for some time, a closing below 9600 may bring back the bears on the driving seat and 9400-9100 may be seen.
10300 is near 200 DMA, can act as resistance and if crossed 10600 can be expected.
I also expect volatility to recede gradually and short covering to continue at a gradual pace.
Most of the bad news is in the price, and with governments taking Corona more seriously than ever, should bring positive results.
Just like China we may see cases receding in European countries. “Just praying India continues to remain safe” and if there is no bad news in coming weeks - we may see the markets rising gradually.
The economic impact of pandemic and its expectations will keep the stock markets under pressure for a few months (may be years), but if there is some relief from epidemic side we may not see the Friday lows anytime soon.
The govts. worldover are putting in serious efforts to stablise markets and minimise the impact of COVID19, we may see Indian Govt. taking some steps soon.
Interest rate cut, some relief to industry and “putting a ban on short selling” can be expected in coming week. If the spread remains in check, these steps may support the oversold markets.
Three closings above 9700 level will be significant, and will surely give confidence to long term investors and positional traders.
9500-9600 on downside and 11300 on upside are significant for next week.