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1/ READING MATERIALS from @APompliano podcast:
* putting #coronavirus into historical context (this is how actuaries view flu pandemics...punch line=#COVIDー19 is more contagious but luckily not as deadly as 1918 flu, at least based on what we know now): pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/88283150956…
2/ * lessons of 1920 Depression (as bad as Great Depression 1929-36 but ended in <1 yr, so is rarely talked abt). Lesson: govts/central banks just got out of way & let supply chains fix themselves. US govt paid down debt & Fed did NOTHING--it ended fast.🙏mises.org/library/forgot…
3/ * history books to read (but only if you're ready to learn abt difficult history--DO NOT READ THESE if you're already anxious, bc they may make anxiety worse):
(a) When Money Dies by Adam Fergusson
(b) The Forgotten Man by @AmityShlaes
(c) Debt & Delusion by Peter Warburton
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Caitlin Long 🔑
@CaitlinLong_
1/ EPIC DOUG AGAIN TODAY☕️No one deserves a victory lap more than Doug for predicting the carnage from burst credit bubble-but he doesn't. Class act. He focuses on what's next. Reading it makes me proud of #Wyoming for enacting a 100% reserve bank charter.
creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly…
2/ SORRY NEW YORK, the center of finance in US is about to decentralize to places like #Wyoming (yep🤠), which are already in process of standing up new banks w/ pristine balance sheets, carrying no legacy from prior mess. (Disclosure: I'm working to set up one & so are others.)
3/ NEVER HAS THE NEED for new banks w/ pristine balance sheets been clearer. As Doug points out, bubble finance is OVER. Deleveraging isn't done yet. There's no locomotive in the world to enable re-inflation of the prior bubble (nope, not even China-whose debt bubble also burst).
Read 14 tweets
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Caitlin Long 🔑
@CaitlinLong_
INTRODUCING AVANTI's LEADERSHIP TEAM! @kanzure CTO, @zshimko COO, Chuck Thompson CLO/CCO, Britney Reddy chief of banking ops/CFO. We've seen A LOT MORE interest in what we're doing, given the environment, & many have expressed a wish that we were already in biz. We're sprinting!
2/ Many know @AvantiBT's CTO, #Bitcoin Core dev @kanzure, who has a track record of building a secure #bitcoin custody platform for @ledgerx + created Bitcoin Vaults (a pre-signed anti-theft recovery & clawback mechanism for bitcoin). He prvsly worked w/ tech partner @Blockstream
3/ Many also know @AvantiBT's Chief Legal Officer/Chief Compliance Officer, Chuck Thompson, who worked w/ @kanzure at @ledgerx. Chuck helped build reg compliance program there + has consulted since. We almost crossed paths at @MorganStanley & have known each other since 2015.
Read 5 tweets
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Caitlin Long 🔑
@CaitlinLong_
1/ HOW TO UNDERSTAND WHAT'S GOING ON IN FINANCIAL MKTS. Western world built up a debt bubble of stunning proportions over past ~50yrs. It's deflating now, just as it tried to do in 2008, 2001, 1997, 1994, 1987, 1981 & 1974. Each time, tho, there was enuf balance sheet capacity...
2/ ...to reinflate the system by pumping more debt into it. In other words assets still existed that hadn't yet been encumbered by debt (directly or indirectly)--meaning the countries were SOLVENT. That's why their fiat currencies had value--assets were still available...
3/ ...that lenders didn't yet have a claim upon (ie, assets not yet mortgaged). Important to understand that when debt expands, liquidity grows--& mostly it just pushes up financial asset prices (for vrs. reasons). Reverse is also true. Debt has grown for ~50 CONSECUTIVE years...
Read 24 tweets

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Hazel Hayes
@TheHazelHayes
Here’s the thing. Years and years of fake news and sensationalist journalism and people panicking over dumb shit on Twitter made me think everyone was overreacting about Coronavirus and that I just needed to be cautious and sensible when going out. Unfortunately, I was wrong.
Living in the UK, where nothing was being done about it, reinforced my belief that it wasn’t a big deal. But I’ve since remembered that the UK government are absolute idiots, so that argument doesn’t work anymore. I mean we’re talking about Boris fucking Johnson here.
Also, as someone with anxiety, I have to filter the news a little bit, and take it in small doses and with a large pinch of salt. So I don’t have a ton of news apps on my phone and wasn’t seeing the full extent of the crisis elsewhere. However, I was quietly keeping an eye on it.
Read 18 tweets
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Dr. Lucky Tran 🐨
@luckytran
#Coronavirus lessons from the past: In the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, St. Louis cancelled its public events while Philadelphia proceeded with a 200,000 person parade.

This was the result:
Within 72 hours every bed in the city’s 31 hospitals was filled. This & other public health fumbles by city authorities lead to a much higher death rate than those cities which implemented multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase

Source: pnas.org/content/104/18…
Right now many of the largest cities in the US (Philadelphia, Chicago, Boston, and New York City) are preparing to hold parades for #StPatricksDay.

City leadership should listen to public health experts and cancel these events.

#coronavirus #COVID19

vice.com/en_us/article/…
Read 5 tweets
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Tom Jesson
@thomas_jesson
Fantastic podcast on coronavirus #COVID - here are my notes, if helpful to anyone
Comparisons to other diseases:

Compared to SARS, MERS, coronavirus is "more transmissible... really unforgiving".

Compared to the flu - "I hear a lot of this, 'it's just like the flu' - it's 20x more deadly, from what we know right now"
The flu is, comparatively, "not that transmissible"... "for the flu you need close contact", which is defined as being within 6 feet for 10-15 mins.
Read 22 tweets
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New Scientist
@newscientist
How bad will the #Covid-19 outbreak get? A leading epidemiologist has claimed it could infect 60% of the world’s population. It seems to be more contagious than 2009 swine flu, which it is estimated infected 24% of the world’s population. bit.ly/39Elhrt
The death rate is hard to calculate without knowing the true number of cases. Epidemiologists think many mild cases are going undetected. If so, the overall death rate may be only 1 per cent. #Covid-19
newscientist.com/article/223326…
Wuhan, the centre of the epidemic, has been locked down since 23 January. The streets are largely empty, but supermarkets remain open and well stocked. #Covid-19
newscientist.com/article/223245…
Read 10 tweets
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DocRock1007 🇺🇸
@DocRock1007
...to San Francisco. apnews.com/cc77e92054c495…
2. Roads in and out of #Wuhan (even small side roads) being barricaded with piles of dirt/rocks to block all traffic in or out.
3. "Ye shall not eat any thing with the blood: neither shall ye use enchantment, nor observe times. Ye shall not .. print any marks upon you: I am the LORD. Do not prostitute thy daughter, to cause her to be a whore; lest the land fall to whoredom"..."apnews.com/d59f43a911996a…
Read 279 tweets

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