Thread by @andrewleedr

@EmmaEversonHock @Smithkjj @felly500 This is a fascinating piece of work by the modellers at Imperial College. And it's grim. Without mitigation, we'll peak mortality in 3 months, 81% of population infected over the course of the epidemic, 510,000 deaths in GB.
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@EmmaEversonHock @Smithkjj @felly500 They looked at different mitigation strategies not to contain/stop it, but to reduce the health impact of the epidemic. Various measures work but healthcare demand (especially ICU) is breached many times over.
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@EmmaEversonHock @Smithkjj @felly500 They conclude mitigation is not viable option as healthcare systems will be overwhelmed. Suppression is alternative but requires really intensive controls (as implemented in other more authoritarian countries). My concern is can we do it in a liberal democracy like the UK.
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@EmmaEversonHock @Smithkjj @felly500 Another alternative they explore is "adaptive suppression" where they turn on and off those intensive controls, just enough that the healthcare system can cope with but allow breathers for society to function. Buys time (for hopefully when vaccine available in the future).
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@EmmaEversonHock @Smithkjj @felly500 Interventions on their own work somewhat (including school and uni closures) but best effect if we do all 4:
- general social distancing
- household quarantine
- case isolation
- school and uni closures
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@EmmaEversonHock @Smithkjj @felly500 Even then, ICU bed capacity likely to be exceeded 8-fold. Unmitigated, would have exceeded > 30-fold. I know my NHS colleagues in hospitals working flat out to boost critical care capacity. Don't underestimate demand on primary care, community health, pharmacy, social care.
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@EmmaEversonHock @Smithkjj @felly500 This is the most serious public health crisis in a generation. It will be socioeconomically very disruptive. There will be serious health consequences. I don't envy the CMO and those who have to make the hard decisions.
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@EmmaEversonHock @Smithkjj @felly500 Important that we as society understand what's required if we are to pull through together (and know the consequences of not sticking together). Big public communication campaign really needed to get everyone on board.
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@EmmaEversonHock @Smithkjj @felly500 Last thought. Most of us who are young and healthy will survive. But it is cold comfort to know many of the vulnerable may not. So we must do our utmost as a society to protect the vulnerable: Wash your hands. Keep your distance. Self isolate if you're unwell. Take it seriously.

@EmmaEversonHock @Smithkjj @felly500 And before anyone questions my cred, I am not a modeller (all of the stuff above is the hardwork of academics at Imperial and their collaborators, not me). But I am a public health doctor, a former consultant in communicable disease control, & current health protection academic.