Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #forecasting

Most recents (7)

Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 7/08/2020-2

greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/07/08/dai…

The radical technologies to keep offices clear of coronavirus | Free to read | Financial Times

ft.com/content/c4de00…

#technologies #offices #radical #coronavirus
Evictions likely to skyrocket this summer as jobs remain scarce. Black renters will be hardest hit. - The Washington Post

washingtonpost.com/business/2020/… 

#jobs #renters #summer
The Metaverse Is Coming And It’s A Very Big Deal

forbes.com/sites/cathyhac… 

#metaverse
Read 14 tweets
"Remember, these models are always wrong.” -@drsanjaygupta

This kind of statement reinforces our misconception of what models are: *decision tools* that give our *best estimates* of future given certain assumptions/inputs— helping us improve decision making under uncertainty.
THREAD: 👇
These models have lots of inputs, which change based on new information like states opening back up or asymptomatic transmission etc.

2/10
Updating a model doesn’t make previous projections wrong, since they were forecasts based on current information and assumptions and *SHOULD change* as new information reveals itself.

3/9
Read 9 tweets
Gündeme dair yazmayı pek sevmem ama salgın artık ‘yeni normal’e dönüşünce, ben de tarihe (yok canım 😜 bloguma) bir not düşmek istedim. …
Yeni #blog yazımda, yaşadığımız salgın sürecine farklı bir analizle baktım. Size de yeni bir izleme noktası oluşturacağı ümidindeyim. Buyrun: “CoVID-19 Büyüme Faktörü Analizi” hasanbaltalar.com/index.php?id=1… #CoVID2019TR #KoronaTurkiye
Yazmam için teşvikte bulunan ve tivitiyle yazıma konuk olan @yasemingunduz96’a teşekkürler :)
Read 11 tweets
(1/) The @imperialcollege study by @MRC_Outbreak on #COVID19 is incredibly important. You should read it. How do their approaches and conclusions for the US compare to mine? tl;dr: they are very similar. More detail in the thread.
(2/) Comparing charts for overall deaths from their model and mine, you'll see that the Imperial College model finds that we stop adding significant numbers to the death count by mid July. My model puts that around June. Total Deaths - IC: 2.2M, My forecast: 1.2M
(3/) Without govt intervention: The IC study finds US cases peak in mid-May. My model peaks in late April.
Read 12 tweets
"Life did not invent #DNA."

Experimental support for the #hotsprings hypothesis for life's origin: David Deamer of @ucsc on nucleic acid polymerization in the wet-dry cycling of Darwin's "warm little pond," powered by #geothermal. Lab results confirmed in #hydrothermal pools.
From "boring statistical partitioning" in the fission of early protocells to the complex #homeostasis-driven #mitosis of the cells we know - Doron Lancet of @WeizmannInstSci on the gradient between closure of #autocatalysis #networks to complex regulatory mechanisms of #biology.
"Life is an integrated nested network of dynamic #kinetic cycles."

Addy Pross emphasizes the importance of motion to the persistent forms of self-organizing #complexsystems at SFI today
Read 13 tweets
Last month a friend asked me "what's the best resource you've read thus far on human decision-making?" 1/
After thinking about it, I decided to recommend her one of the first such resources I ever encountered, seven years ago: Doug Hubbard (@hubbardaie)'s How to Measure Anything. 2/ amazon.com/How-Measure-An…
While I don't agree with every word of it, How to Measure Anything is quite possibly the most important and useful book I've ever read on any topic. Here's why. 3/
Read 24 tweets

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