Thread by @wjantholis

Is Coronavirus the final Trump Crisis?

How many times have we heard "Trump’s handling of X will be a turning point and/or define his presidency”?

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Firing James Comey, the Russia investigation, #Charlottesville, the failed repeal of Obamacare, Tax Cuts, Stormy Daniels, the 2018 midterm, Mattis’s resignation, crime reform bill, government shutdown, Mueller Report, Ukraine whistleblower, NAFTA, Impeachment, Soleimani.

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A few have been good for him. Most bad.
Will Coronavirus be different?

His popularity has wavered across these many crises. Never below 37%. Never above 46%.

The difference btw 37% and 46% is huge come election day, of course. Not just for the President, but also for down-ballot races.

Think of these voters not as “Never Trumpers” but as “sometimes Trumpers.” They want to support the president, but have struggled to do so.

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His strength among "sometime Trumpers" seems to come from his handling of the economy & trade – where "approve" consistently exceeds 40%. By contrast, immigration, health policy, and foreign policy poll less well. (“approve” in GOP red, and “disapprove” in DEM blue.)

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But now, the coronavirus crisis threatens two main pillars of Trump’s popularity: the general economy and his governing style. Depending on how he responds, the crisis also presents an opportunity for him to seize the mantle of leadership.

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First, the economic threat. Current projections are for a 6% drop in GDP in Q2, and for a further drop of 1.5% in Q3. The entire stock market gains of the Trump presidency have been wiped out. The foundation for his current popularity seems eroded.

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Second, Trump's blunt and improvisational style – which infuriates the left but is what keeps his base loyal. If the perception is that Trump’s inaction or, worse, his ineptness deepened the crisis (like Carter’s handling Iranian hostage crisis) that could be fatal.

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Critical in swing states, of course.

Both there and across the country, it is worth watching the roughly 9% of Republicans who are “sometimes Trumpers.” This crisis will begin to affect not only their pocketbooks, but also the lives of their neighbors and family members.

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The extent to which the president is seen as responsible for either economic or human security – for good or bad – may be the ultimate determination in his reelection.

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Both for “sometimes Trumpers”, and beyond, it is not just whether they approve of the president, but also whether they show up at all. How he performs during the crisis will affect turn-out, both among his base, in the middle, and on the left.

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Does the crisis have any political upside? In Trump’s press conferences this week, he sounded sober, focused, non-ideological, and even optimistic. He is trying to demonstrate leadership that pushed both Bush 41 and 43 popularity the first Gulf War and 9-11, respectively.

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Democrats in Congress, at the state and local level, and even now his near-certain general election candidate, Joe Biden, must to be careful not to criticize the commander-in-chief unnecessarily.

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Democrats currently hold most of the leverage on crafting the Congressional stimulus. If they appear to make this about the President and to oppose Trump at all turns, they run the risk of undermining a response and recovery.

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That doesn’t mean that non-party organization or actors, such as Michael Bloomberg, will not point to his missteps, poor decisions, or acts of blame-storming that the President has taken.

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Can Trump stay presidential? In Tuesday’s press conference, the President was asked to look backward and assess his previous statements. Trump returned to the posture many on the left revile and many on the right adore: unapologetic, self-congratulatory, blame-storming.

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If Trump chooses to revert to Trumpisms, he will give D’s every opportunity to say that the country saved itself, despite him.

end

One answer to “Can Trump quit being Trump?”

And a few reasons why voters will remember the old Trump.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…