Thread by @MattHaneySF

I want to share some information about why this is so serious.

Many people are wondering, understandably, why we have to take unprecedented measures, disrupting and devastating the economy and people's lives, to halt the spread of this virus. (1/20)

Today US confirmed #coronavirus cases surpassed 10,000 confirmed cases, an 8000% increase in 15 days. Of course this is a huge undercount because there have been relatively few tests done. What we do right now will determine what happens next. (2/20)

I've been focused on sharing info and advocacy related to the economic impact and the immediate impact of the shelter in place order, which are incredibly disruptive and devastating, especially for people who are already economically vulnerable. (3/20)

I also want to be clear: At this moment, we are facing potentially one of the most deadly pandemics we've seen in 100 years. We are in the early stages of it, and what we do right now matters. The choices we make now can save hundreds of thousands of lives. (4/20)

We know that this is serious in large part because we have seen what has happened in other countries.

On Feb 23rd, Italy had 155 confirmed cases. It has been less than a month. Today Italy has over 37,000 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths. That happened in less than a month.

Yesterday was the most deadly day on record in #Italy with over 450 deaths, and their death toll now surpasses China's. (6/20)

The growth of virus followed a similar pattern in Italy, as in Spain, France and a number of other European countries, doubling roughly every 5 days. Spain and France are seeing similar growth as Italy, they're just a little further behind in when the virus hit. (7/20)

The virus has spread in the US, so far, at the same rate as it spread in Italy, and as of today, slightly faster. Just to underscore that: The US is seeing the same rate of growth of the virus as in Italy, which has already seen 3K deaths and over 37K confirmed cases. (8/20)

The US had just over 100 cases on March 3rd, and as of today we had over 10,000 confirmed cases—that's a growth of over 8000% in 15 days. Yesterday was our single worst day, likely to be surpassed by today. NY had one case on March 1st and now has over 4K confirmed cases.(9/20)

To be clear what this means: We are 9 days behind Italy. If we continue at same rate of growth they did, which all the numbers suggest we are, we'll have roughly 40,000 cases 9 days from now. And in weeks, we'd have 100,000s by June 1st we could surpass 30 million.(10/20)

The death rate is somewhere between 1% and 3%, and of course is far more deadly for people who are older or who are sick. The math is too scary to even comprehend in terms of the number of deaths. (11/20)

Yes there have been other pandemics we've faced. But nothing that spreads quite like this in 100 years, without a cure or vaccine.

The comparison between countries isn't apples to apples: Italy, Spain, France and the United States are not all the same. (12/20)

There's also clearly a lot of under-testing and under-reporting. And once tests become available, we'll see a spike in cases, not necessarily because there are more cases overall, just more testing. There are obviously many people who have it who have not been tested. (13/20)

But the same issues existed in many of these other countries. And their health care systems, social welfare systems, are for the most part, better than ours, and are definitely more universal. (14/20)

There's also evidence that we can get reduce the spread, and #flattenthecurve. Social distancing and social isolation is absolutely key to that. Some other countries, including #SouthKorea, implemented measures early on, and they have been able to control it. (15/20)

New confirmed cases have slowed tremendously, and the death rate is much lower. They've been able to get back to some level of normalcy, though most people are wearing masks. (16/20)

Other countries have seen lower growth because of measures they took early. Italy was late to respond, but now has very restrictive measures in place. Washington State just reported positive news with their growth slowing greatly. (17/20)

Other countries have seen lower growth because of measures they took early. Italy was late to respond, but now has very restrictive measures in place. Washington State just reported positive news with their growth slowing greatly.

I know we all want to get back to normalcy. But at this point, unless something changes to move in very different direction, we are early stages, and what we do right now matters tremendously.There's unfortunately no reason right now to believe this is going to pass soon. (18/20)

Most urgently, we need to slow the growth, that's why we are asking everyone to isolate--so our #hospitals can be prepared, so we can get #tests and #quarantines established, and so we can develop a vaccine, which takes time. (19/20)

Every medical hospital and medical research university is working on this, we just need some more time.

I'm hopeful, we'll get through it. But what is clear is that this is serious, and the seriousness and urgency of our response can make a huge difference. (20/20)