Very interesting set of scientific/ behavioural reports that have informed Government thinking just released... gov.uk/government/gro…
The scepticism on school closures is explained here.
Was linked to modelling for pandemic flu. Others (eg WHO) have pointed out coronavirus is not a type of flu, and medics were urging seniors to look at what was actually happening in China/ Italy
Was linked to modelling for pandemic flu. Others (eg WHO) have pointed out coronavirus is not a type of flu, and medics were urging seniors to look at what was actually happening in China/ Italy
Again... the early strategy built on trying to avoid green line in Autumn, by tolerating red line extra impact earlier on. Not yet known if green second bump will happen.
Missing line here - NHS capacity.
Current plan somewhere between red and green, hopefully avoiding red-blue
Missing line here - NHS capacity.
Current plan somewhere between red and green, hopefully avoiding red-blue
Assumptions about compliance with various pandemic reduction strategies...
Home isolation of symptomatic- 70%
Whole household isolation - 50%
Social distancing for the elderly - 75%
Let’s hope theyre underestimates
* measures lasting 8-13 weeks, 17 weeks for elderly distancing
Home isolation of symptomatic- 70%
Whole household isolation - 50%
Social distancing for the elderly - 75%
Let’s hope theyre underestimates
* measures lasting 8-13 weeks, 17 weeks for elderly distancing
Clear from this chart that a significant factor in advice to Government was impact on poorer households unable to isolate. These are difficult trade offs.
Consideration of public disorder risks...
Helpful on symptoms/ progression, from @imperialcollege team:
ICL version of above chart, with NHS “surge” capacity to deal with critical care/ ventilating - net effect of letting things go a bit is to ram up against severe constraints, faster & harder in next few weeks - exac what everyone in Italy, with higher capacity, was warning too:
Right now UK has:
- one set of people who at risk to themselves are trying to raise that red line to improve the surge critical care capacity - retired doctors and nurses.
- And others campaigning to do things which would increase immediate transmission rate, increasing spike
- one set of people who at risk to themselves are trying to raise that red line to improve the surge critical care capacity - retired doctors and nurses.
- And others campaigning to do things which would increase immediate transmission rate, increasing spike
The Chinese medical delegation sent to Italy with ventilators etc cant believe public transport is running and people aren’t wearing masks...
Please read this from the @HSJnews about what is happening now at a hospital in NW London - and we’re only in foothills of this...
hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals…
hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals…
Though the “critical incident” status at Northwick Park hospital referred to in the article has now been stood down...
