For our upcoming @eosmagazine story on the Coronavirus on Sunday, we ran the numbers. They make for scary reading. The point is not to cause panic but to drive home the cost of inaction.
Using existing epigemiological studies, we predict that the numbers of those infected...>
Using existing epigemiological studies, we predict that the numbers of those infected...>
...will double every 6 days if NO mitigation measures (such as social distancing and lockdowns) are adopted/ enforced.
Then we used the confirmed cases given by the government only, even though there’s a consensus that the number of Pak tests are woefully low. We also used...>
Then we used the confirmed cases given by the government only, even though there’s a consensus that the number of Pak tests are woefully low. We also used...>
...the global estimate that the *actual* number of cases is 8-10 times the number of confirmed cases.
Using these three metrics/ assumptions, we predict that the *actual* number of Coronavirus infections in Pakistan will be upwards of 2 crores by just June 5 *IF* strong...>
Using these three metrics/ assumptions, we predict that the *actual* number of Coronavirus infections in Pakistan will be upwards of 2 crores by just June 5 *IF* strong...>
...and urgent measures are not taken urgently to ‘flatten the curve.’
Why is this a potential disaster? Consider that it is assumed that 10% of infections require hospitalisation. That means around 2m people will require hospitalisation.
Now consider that the *total* ...>
Why is this a potential disaster? Consider that it is assumed that 10% of infections require hospitalisation. That means around 2m people will require hospitalisation.
Now consider that the *total* ...>
...number of hospital beds in Pakistan are only about 110,000, many of which are already occupied by patients of other diseases/ trauma. That means we would have almost 20x the number of Covid-19 patients requiring hospitalisation as there are beds in all of Pak.
Consider...>
Consider...>
...also that the total number of ventilators in Pak are less than 2000. That means there could be 1000x the number of Covid-19 patients requiring ventilators as there are machines available. That would be a straightforward recipe for mortality rates to shoot through the roof.
Basically, taking drastic measures now is the only sensible route if Pakistan wants to avoid a potentially impending and utter disaster that will destroy not only the economy but also the social fabric of the country.
It’s not rocket science, just basic math and learning...>
It’s not rocket science, just basic math and learning...>
...from the examples staring us in the face: from China, Iran, Italy and elsewhere.
The more you ‘hope for the best’ and wait, the greater the likelihood of making the #Coronaapocalypse come true.
The more you ‘hope for the best’ and wait, the greater the likelihood of making the #Coronaapocalypse come true.
