We're marching like Somme volunteers (my grandfathers) to a catastrophe. We haven't deveoped fear of #COVID19. Lockdown was needed before the Mar 11 Budget (people crammed into Parliament). Before the Cheltenham Festival. One superspreader in Korea started their epidemic.
Italy is up to 800 deaths per day and is losing control. We face as bad a crisis, or worse, with our weakened NHS overwhelmed within two weeks.
Our death rates without adequate care will be more like Wuhan (2.8%). Read the blog by Daniel Falush, a British mathematical biologist based in China. paintmychromosomes.blogspot.com
He identified four qualities of a good response 1. Openness about the reality. 2. Willingness to take painful measures 3. Strong logistics 4. Take people with you. The UK is weak on all four counts. China did it after the terror of Wuhan.
UK advisers misled us about the science, severity of the threat, herd immunity, the 'one month' to bring in staged 'social distancing', and the time frame of this disaster. They 'suffered from institutional capture in thrall to charismatic politicians they report to.' (Falush).
London will be worse than Wuhan. We need all people confined to home, shops closed except food stores and pharmacies, police + army to manage lockdown + panic buying, medical reservists brought in, aid or purchase of protective equipment from abroad, and a state of emergency.
A million people died in 4 months of the Battles of the Somme. We're facing something similar. We needed a lockdown twelve days ago. Every day of delay causes thousands of new infections. With a total lockdown we might get some control in 8-10 weeks. Be afraid and comply.
