From Peter Turchin. The best approach now is to model the dynamic process of how disease grows (& eventually declines) and how numbers of actual infections are translated into statistics. Here is "the approach with one specific example using non-technical language... "
"The key parameter in the model is the transmission rate, which determines how fast the disease spreads from the infected population to that of susceptibles. The second important parameter is the detection rate. Both of these parameters changed during the epidemic."
...initially, and for quite a while, the epidemic was growing “below the radar screen”. People were getting sick in growing numbers, but the society as whole was not yet aware of it.
Key point: "aggressive testing of asymptomatic people is bearing fruit." peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/h…
@threadreaderapp @unroll unroll please
